As great as Arian Foster is, I don’t think enough people appreciate just how great he is. For five seasons, he’s been the centerpiece of offenses whose QBs were game managers, not playmakers. He owns a 4.5 YPC even though Houston’s QBs have rarely been able to keep defenses honest. The only way to stop him is to hope he gets hurt.
Last year Foster rebounded from an injury-laden 2013 season to be the fifth highest RB fantasy scorer . . . despite playing only 13 games. He’s in my top 5 this year—a bit better than his current #7 RB ADP. The offense will continue to run through him.
A year ago I promoted Alfred Blue (presently the #62 RB ADP) as a huge buy-low candidate in case Foster missed time. Blue managed three scores on 184 touches, but a 3.1 YPC limited his role when Foster was healthy. As a handcuff, Blue obviously should significantly outperform current ADP expectations if thrust into a starting role. But I don’t want to use a late draft pick on him unless I’ve got 7+ bench spots to fill.
Who will win Houston’s QB battle? Brian Hoyer is the 32nd ranked QB among Fantasy Pros’ listed experts; Ryan Mallett is 37th. I think Hoyer will win the job and post top 25 QB numbers; he’s better than what we saw last year in Cleveland, where he didn’t have an elite RB or near-elite WR to target.
DeAndre Hopkins is the aforementioned near-elite WR. Owning a #15 WR ADP, Hopkins is the clear #1 receiver after finishing 15th among fantasy WRs last year, despite dealing with erratic QB play. Andre Johnson is gone. Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington (ranked 68th and 97th among WRs by Fantasy Pros’ experts) won’t be much competition. Shorts is injury prone and last season lost ground to two rookies on Jacksonville’s depth chart. Washington is a once-every-three-weeks “Glad I started him” veteran WR on the downside of his career.
Only rookie Jaelen Strong (#75 WR ADP) has the potential to cut into Hopkins’ anticipated production; he has WR4/5 potential if he wins the starting job, with room to grow. That said, Hopkins appears to be a safe bet for low-end WR1 production.
Last year Foster rebounded from an injury-laden 2013 season to be the fifth highest RB fantasy scorer . . . despite playing only 13 games. He’s in my top 5 this year—a bit better than his current #7 RB ADP. The offense will continue to run through him.
A year ago I promoted Alfred Blue (presently the #62 RB ADP) as a huge buy-low candidate in case Foster missed time. Blue managed three scores on 184 touches, but a 3.1 YPC limited his role when Foster was healthy. As a handcuff, Blue obviously should significantly outperform current ADP expectations if thrust into a starting role. But I don’t want to use a late draft pick on him unless I’ve got 7+ bench spots to fill.
Who will win Houston’s QB battle? Brian Hoyer is the 32nd ranked QB among Fantasy Pros’ listed experts; Ryan Mallett is 37th. I think Hoyer will win the job and post top 25 QB numbers; he’s better than what we saw last year in Cleveland, where he didn’t have an elite RB or near-elite WR to target.
DeAndre Hopkins is the aforementioned near-elite WR. Owning a #15 WR ADP, Hopkins is the clear #1 receiver after finishing 15th among fantasy WRs last year, despite dealing with erratic QB play. Andre Johnson is gone. Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington (ranked 68th and 97th among WRs by Fantasy Pros’ experts) won’t be much competition. Shorts is injury prone and last season lost ground to two rookies on Jacksonville’s depth chart. Washington is a once-every-three-weeks “Glad I started him” veteran WR on the downside of his career.
Only rookie Jaelen Strong (#75 WR ADP) has the potential to cut into Hopkins’ anticipated production; he has WR4/5 potential if he wins the starting job, with room to grow. That said, Hopkins appears to be a safe bet for low-end WR1 production.