The Bears last made the playoffs in 2010, when they were 10-5. Fifth-year QB Jay Cutler threw for 3,274 yards that season and posted a 23/16 TD/INT ratio. Life was good in Chicago.
In the debacle that was 2014, the 5-10 Bears’ QB—the same Jay Cutler—threw for 3,812 yards and logged a career-high 28 TDs to go with 18 INTs. People shouldn’t blame Cutler; we always knew his ceiling was low.
Last year I got greedy and predicted he’d be the ninth best QB; he finished 14th. This year his ADP is 24th. That’s way too low. Had he not missed Week 16 last year, he probably would have finished in the top 9-to-11. I once again like him as a low-end QB1. It helps to have a near-elite (#9 WR ADP) receiver in Alshon Jeffery, who should post top 10 WR numbers in his first year as Cutler’s go-to guy downfield. It also helps to have an elite (#6 RB ADP) running back in Matt Forte, who caught an unbelievable 102 balls last year. Forte will snap back from an unexpected 3.9 YPC; expect 2,000+ total yards and 12+ TDs for this mid-first round “steal.”
It’s tough to read rookie Kevin White (#29 WR ADP). If you believe the reports that he’ll begin the season as an every down starter opposite Jeffery, then top 35 WR numbers sound realistic. But right now I’m not buying it. If I had to make a decision today, I’d pass on White with the belief that he’s more likely to be outside the top 50 WRs than inside the top 30. Marquess Wilson (no ADP; 88th ranked WR among Fantasy Pros’ 38 experts) is one reason why I doubt White breaks out. The second-year Wilson will be a top 60 WR with top 45 upside, and that upside will kick in if he’s named the official starter opposite Jeffery before Week 1.
After Eddie Royal’s back-to-back two-TD performances last September, I urged everyone to sell high. Turns out I was half wrong: Royal finished the year tied for 30th among fantasy WRs. Of course, one-third of his points came in those two superhuman games. In half of his remaining 12 games, Royal scored three or fewer fantasy points. That’s what you get with this streaky receiver. Expect the same this year, though I believe he’ll finish well outside the top 40.
Finally, I want to be on the Martellus Bennett bandwagon. I really do. But his TE ADP is 5th. But his career year last season (916 yards, six TDs) came on 129 targets—one shy of matching Jimmy Graham for the league’s TE lead. Bears target leaders Jeffery and Forte will still be heavily active. The only other receiver with more than 32 targets was Brandon Marshall (105). I believe Wilson, White, and Royal will net 50-70 apiece, meaning we should expect to see some volume regression from Bennett, translating into a fall from the top 5 to the mid-to-back end of the top 10.
In the debacle that was 2014, the 5-10 Bears’ QB—the same Jay Cutler—threw for 3,812 yards and logged a career-high 28 TDs to go with 18 INTs. People shouldn’t blame Cutler; we always knew his ceiling was low.
Last year I got greedy and predicted he’d be the ninth best QB; he finished 14th. This year his ADP is 24th. That’s way too low. Had he not missed Week 16 last year, he probably would have finished in the top 9-to-11. I once again like him as a low-end QB1. It helps to have a near-elite (#9 WR ADP) receiver in Alshon Jeffery, who should post top 10 WR numbers in his first year as Cutler’s go-to guy downfield. It also helps to have an elite (#6 RB ADP) running back in Matt Forte, who caught an unbelievable 102 balls last year. Forte will snap back from an unexpected 3.9 YPC; expect 2,000+ total yards and 12+ TDs for this mid-first round “steal.”
It’s tough to read rookie Kevin White (#29 WR ADP). If you believe the reports that he’ll begin the season as an every down starter opposite Jeffery, then top 35 WR numbers sound realistic. But right now I’m not buying it. If I had to make a decision today, I’d pass on White with the belief that he’s more likely to be outside the top 50 WRs than inside the top 30. Marquess Wilson (no ADP; 88th ranked WR among Fantasy Pros’ 38 experts) is one reason why I doubt White breaks out. The second-year Wilson will be a top 60 WR with top 45 upside, and that upside will kick in if he’s named the official starter opposite Jeffery before Week 1.
After Eddie Royal’s back-to-back two-TD performances last September, I urged everyone to sell high. Turns out I was half wrong: Royal finished the year tied for 30th among fantasy WRs. Of course, one-third of his points came in those two superhuman games. In half of his remaining 12 games, Royal scored three or fewer fantasy points. That’s what you get with this streaky receiver. Expect the same this year, though I believe he’ll finish well outside the top 40.
Finally, I want to be on the Martellus Bennett bandwagon. I really do. But his TE ADP is 5th. But his career year last season (916 yards, six TDs) came on 129 targets—one shy of matching Jimmy Graham for the league’s TE lead. Bears target leaders Jeffery and Forte will still be heavily active. The only other receiver with more than 32 targets was Brandon Marshall (105). I believe Wilson, White, and Royal will net 50-70 apiece, meaning we should expect to see some volume regression from Bennett, translating into a fall from the top 5 to the mid-to-back end of the top 10.