In the last post, I suggested that the NFL's extra point rule change will impact coaches' decisions on whether to go for two instead of kicking the extra point. In the past three years, the extra point has been preferred 95% of the time. I'm predicting that the rule change will mean more parity among the two options.
So let's look at new rule's micro-level fantasy impact: How will positional players be affected?
Again, I ran the numbers. On average over the past three years, there have been 1,309 TDs per season. That's an average of 41 TDs per team. About 1.95 of these TDs have led to two-point conversion attempts, and only 0.94 have led to two points.
So two-point conversions have had almost zero impact on fantasy scoring--we're talking an average of less than two points per team per season, or nearly four points if you're lucky enough to have the QB and WR who connected on their loan two-point play of the season.
Now let's look at QB Matthew Stafford. He has eight two-point conversions in six NFL seasons (1.33 per year). Suppose the extra point rule change means that instead of 5% of the time, coaches opt for the two-point try 33% of the time. If history holds, Stafford would be looking at nine two-point conversions--or nearly 16 fantasy points more than what he would have produced without the rule change. If coaches go for two 50% of the time, all things being equal, Stafford would net 12 more conversions--or 24 more fantasy points. That equates to more than a 10% bump in fantasy production over last year.
But it's not just about Stafford. It's easy to get caught up in hypotheticals. Let's look at positional patterns. In the past three seasons, this is how frequently each position was involved in a successful two-point play. Note that it adds up to more than 100% because on passing plays, two players stand to gain two points each:
If--IF--two-point attempts jump from 5% to 50% of all post-TD plays, it will be a game changer for QBs, with QBs in high-scoring offenses benefiting the most. And scoring differences between elite QBs and elite RBs/WRs/TEs will widen.
Last year, 12 QBs had over 250 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. Only three RBs and one WR reached the same tier. This year we could see eight QBs scoring 300+ points (double that of last season), and one or two cracking 375. No other position is likely to have a player reach 300 points.
I'm not claiming that Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck should be the first two guys off the board in drafts. But a 375-point Aaron Rodgers--aided by, say, 22 two-point conversions he didn't get in previous seasons--would help anyone with even a mediocre complementary roster have a shot at the playoffs.
Along those lines, underrated QBs with a shot at near-top-tier status (I'm looking at you, Stafford) could be steals in the sixth or seventh rounds, giving you 300- to 340-point potential at a bargain price. Consider that last year's #9 fantasy RB and #10 fantasy WR racked up only 171 and 172 points, respectively, in standard scoring leagues.
This discussion hinges on a couple of big variables:
We'll know soon enough whether this is truth or bunk. Fantasy football is about rolling with the probabilities. I believe there's a high enough probability that both of these variables will hold. If I'm wrong, there will be plenty of time during the season to make adjustments. But if I'm right . . . we'll be better off than 99% of the folks out there.
So let's look at new rule's micro-level fantasy impact: How will positional players be affected?
Again, I ran the numbers. On average over the past three years, there have been 1,309 TDs per season. That's an average of 41 TDs per team. About 1.95 of these TDs have led to two-point conversion attempts, and only 0.94 have led to two points.
So two-point conversions have had almost zero impact on fantasy scoring--we're talking an average of less than two points per team per season, or nearly four points if you're lucky enough to have the QB and WR who connected on their loan two-point play of the season.
Now let's look at QB Matthew Stafford. He has eight two-point conversions in six NFL seasons (1.33 per year). Suppose the extra point rule change means that instead of 5% of the time, coaches opt for the two-point try 33% of the time. If history holds, Stafford would be looking at nine two-point conversions--or nearly 16 fantasy points more than what he would have produced without the rule change. If coaches go for two 50% of the time, all things being equal, Stafford would net 12 more conversions--or 24 more fantasy points. That equates to more than a 10% bump in fantasy production over last year.
But it's not just about Stafford. It's easy to get caught up in hypotheticals. Let's look at positional patterns. In the past three seasons, this is how frequently each position was involved in a successful two-point play. Note that it adds up to more than 100% because on passing plays, two players stand to gain two points each:
- QB - 78%
- WR - 46%
- RB - 30%
- TE - 19%
If--IF--two-point attempts jump from 5% to 50% of all post-TD plays, it will be a game changer for QBs, with QBs in high-scoring offenses benefiting the most. And scoring differences between elite QBs and elite RBs/WRs/TEs will widen.
Last year, 12 QBs had over 250 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. Only three RBs and one WR reached the same tier. This year we could see eight QBs scoring 300+ points (double that of last season), and one or two cracking 375. No other position is likely to have a player reach 300 points.
I'm not claiming that Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck should be the first two guys off the board in drafts. But a 375-point Aaron Rodgers--aided by, say, 22 two-point conversions he didn't get in previous seasons--would help anyone with even a mediocre complementary roster have a shot at the playoffs.
Along those lines, underrated QBs with a shot at near-top-tier status (I'm looking at you, Stafford) could be steals in the sixth or seventh rounds, giving you 300- to 340-point potential at a bargain price. Consider that last year's #9 fantasy RB and #10 fantasy WR racked up only 171 and 172 points, respectively, in standard scoring leagues.
This discussion hinges on a couple of big variables:
- As proposed yesterday based on historical success rates, the extra point rule change will motivate coaches to go for two much more often--somewhere between 33% and 50% of the time.
- QBs will continue to be the clear positional frontrunner for points on two-point conversions.
We'll know soon enough whether this is truth or bunk. Fantasy football is about rolling with the probabilities. I believe there's a high enough probability that both of these variables will hold. If I'm wrong, there will be plenty of time during the season to make adjustments. But if I'm right . . . we'll be better off than 99% of the folks out there.