Is DeMarco Murray a 1st round pick? Current ADP numbers shows him going 12th overall--right on the cusp of the late 1st / early 2nd rounds. My initial sense (things could change as the preseason progresses, though I doubt they'll change very much in this case) is that Murray is more likely than not to experience a major regression.
Remember that this was the same Murray who couldn't stay healthy his first three seasons, missing 11 out of 48 games. He was labeled as an injury-prone RB who might never put it all together.
What he did last year was nothing less than remarkable. Even a broken hand couldn't sideline his season, finishing with 1,845 rushing yards and 13 TDs. Why couldn't he have another elite season at age 27?
Consider the other six RBs who've had more rushing attempts than Murray (392) in a season. In four cases, they fell off the rails the following season, posting numbers that were somewhere between "sharply worse" and "fantasy irrelevant." In the other two cases, the RBs experienced modest drop-offs, before becoming completely irrelevant in the year after that.
I don't think Murray will play 16 games this year. I also don't think he'll maintain his 4.8 career yards-per-carry average running behind an offensive line that doesn't stand up to what he's accustomed to in Dallas.
If Murray falls to me at the end of the 1st round or even the early 2nd, I'm taking someone else. He might help me win a few games early in the season. But he's not someone I can bank on for the fantasy playoff run.
Remember that this was the same Murray who couldn't stay healthy his first three seasons, missing 11 out of 48 games. He was labeled as an injury-prone RB who might never put it all together.
What he did last year was nothing less than remarkable. Even a broken hand couldn't sideline his season, finishing with 1,845 rushing yards and 13 TDs. Why couldn't he have another elite season at age 27?
Consider the other six RBs who've had more rushing attempts than Murray (392) in a season. In four cases, they fell off the rails the following season, posting numbers that were somewhere between "sharply worse" and "fantasy irrelevant." In the other two cases, the RBs experienced modest drop-offs, before becoming completely irrelevant in the year after that.
I don't think Murray will play 16 games this year. I also don't think he'll maintain his 4.8 career yards-per-carry average running behind an offensive line that doesn't stand up to what he's accustomed to in Dallas.
If Murray falls to me at the end of the 1st round or even the early 2nd, I'm taking someone else. He might help me win a few games early in the season. But he's not someone I can bank on for the fantasy playoff run.