The Raiders DST shocked a lot of people in the fantasy world yesterday, locking up a DST1 performance regardless of what happens tonight. But you, fearless FF4W readers, shouldn't have been surprised. A top 14 DST result was predicted last Wednesday:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2014/12/week-14-bargains.html
This is yet another example of the experts falling short. For example, a composite of 100 notable experts ranked Oakland all the way down at #31, just ahead of the last place Falcons:
Only one person tracked by Fantasy Pros observed what this site observed--that the Raiders would do far better than nearly everyone thought. His name is Chris Heil, and he ranked Oakland 8th. None of his 99 compatriots ranked Oakland above 23rd. That's what it means to be a difference maker.
Going out on a limb is the best thing you can do if, from your perspective, it's not a limb but a sturdy brick platform. We all see the evidence differently, formulating our own opinions based on known and unknown biases. For example, for the past two seasons I've viewed QB Colin Kaepernick as one of the NFL's most overrated QBs. The same is true for RB Frank Gore as a second-half-of-the-season runner (his numbers have tended to drag after the season's midway point). Vernon Davis? As you can see in my top 10/20 positional preseason rankings far below, he wasn't even on the list; instead, I placed little-known Travis Kelce in the #10 spot.
On the other side of the ball, Oakland is last in the NFL in first downs. That, in part, has affected their defensive play, because they're giving up the ball way too often. RB Latavius Murray posted a pedestrian 3.3 YPC, but it came against a top 10 run defense. For the season, it still was better than the season marks for Darren McFadden (3.2 YPC) and Maurice Jones-Drew (2.2 YPC). Oakland understood that Murray was its best offensive weapon; by running him 23 times, they kept the clock moving and set up some nice passing plays. Oakland won the time of possession by almost three minutes, limiting the Niners' possessions (thereby helping Oakland's D).
I didn't think Kaepernick would toss two interceptions, and definitely didn't imagine the Raiders could sack him five times. But the above thoughts filtered into my imaginary projection machine (I really don't have an imaginary projection machine, but bear with me) and presented a clear case for why Oakland's D would have a good day. It's taking statistics, viewing them within context (e.g. Raiders coming off an embarrassing loss and playing their hated cross-town rivals at home), and formulating a strong opinion that has no bearing on what anyone else thinks.
So a hat tip to Chris Heil and to those of you who, stuck with borderline DST1 options, went bold in your biggest game of the fantasy season and started the Raiders. Going forward, take the evidence presented to you and formulate opinions you can stand behind with confidence. If you can't do that, it's nothing more than a guessing game.
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2014/12/week-14-bargains.html
This is yet another example of the experts falling short. For example, a composite of 100 notable experts ranked Oakland all the way down at #31, just ahead of the last place Falcons:
Only one person tracked by Fantasy Pros observed what this site observed--that the Raiders would do far better than nearly everyone thought. His name is Chris Heil, and he ranked Oakland 8th. None of his 99 compatriots ranked Oakland above 23rd. That's what it means to be a difference maker.
Going out on a limb is the best thing you can do if, from your perspective, it's not a limb but a sturdy brick platform. We all see the evidence differently, formulating our own opinions based on known and unknown biases. For example, for the past two seasons I've viewed QB Colin Kaepernick as one of the NFL's most overrated QBs. The same is true for RB Frank Gore as a second-half-of-the-season runner (his numbers have tended to drag after the season's midway point). Vernon Davis? As you can see in my top 10/20 positional preseason rankings far below, he wasn't even on the list; instead, I placed little-known Travis Kelce in the #10 spot.
On the other side of the ball, Oakland is last in the NFL in first downs. That, in part, has affected their defensive play, because they're giving up the ball way too often. RB Latavius Murray posted a pedestrian 3.3 YPC, but it came against a top 10 run defense. For the season, it still was better than the season marks for Darren McFadden (3.2 YPC) and Maurice Jones-Drew (2.2 YPC). Oakland understood that Murray was its best offensive weapon; by running him 23 times, they kept the clock moving and set up some nice passing plays. Oakland won the time of possession by almost three minutes, limiting the Niners' possessions (thereby helping Oakland's D).
I didn't think Kaepernick would toss two interceptions, and definitely didn't imagine the Raiders could sack him five times. But the above thoughts filtered into my imaginary projection machine (I really don't have an imaginary projection machine, but bear with me) and presented a clear case for why Oakland's D would have a good day. It's taking statistics, viewing them within context (e.g. Raiders coming off an embarrassing loss and playing their hated cross-town rivals at home), and formulating a strong opinion that has no bearing on what anyone else thinks.
So a hat tip to Chris Heil and to those of you who, stuck with borderline DST1 options, went bold in your biggest game of the fantasy season and started the Raiders. Going forward, take the evidence presented to you and formulate opinions you can stand behind with confidence. If you can't do that, it's nothing more than a guessing game.