When a player posts elite fantasy numbers through the season's first three weeks (before the first team byes), how frequently do they maintain elite status through Week 12 (after which team byes end)?
I did some research over the weekend to get answers to this basic question, which will help us understand--at least based on 2014 numbers--the probability that next year's fast-out-the-gate fantasy studs will soon fade.
I assembled the top 12 fantasy performer (standard league scoring) at each position through Week 3. A three-way tie for 11th place at the kicker position made that a 13-player category.
Heading into Week 4, Kirk Cousins was a hot commodity--and no wonder, since he was tied with Matt Stafford for the 9th most QB points. Knile Davis commanded the #7 spot at RB, thanks to Jamaal Charles' injury-riddled September. Allen Hurns was tied for 6th at WR--a position he would not hold for long. Meanwhile, Niles Paul (7th best TE) was a surprising fantasy starter while Jordan Reed was sidelined.
Of the categories with fewer personnel (QB, TE, K, DST), 16 of the 49 top 12/13 positional players (32.7%) ended up outside the top 12/13 after Week 12. Additionally, 16 of the 49 moved up within the positional rankings over that 9-week span, while the remaining 17 players (34.7%) moved down within those rankings--still holding onto a top 12/13 spot, but no longer as elite as before.
When factoring all players--including the more prevalent RBs and WRs--the percentage breakdowns are 38.9%, 33.3%, and 27.8%, respectively. These percentages are influenced by the fact that half of the top 12 RBs and WRs had dropped from their elite perch by the end of Week 12.
What's amazing is that the results for four categories were parsed so evenly: a third dropped out, a third moved up, and a third merely ticked downward. TEs were the most consistent at maintaining their rankings, with only Paul and Zach Ertz dropping from the list, making way for Jason Witten and Coby Fleener. RBs and WRs (no surprise when you really think about it) were the most volatile.
It's too soon to tell whether this is an anomaly or something to bank future decisions on. But as with all research, it's something to build on. If next year proves similar, and the year after that, we'll have some tangible data on which to make smart calculated risks.
I did some research over the weekend to get answers to this basic question, which will help us understand--at least based on 2014 numbers--the probability that next year's fast-out-the-gate fantasy studs will soon fade.
I assembled the top 12 fantasy performer (standard league scoring) at each position through Week 3. A three-way tie for 11th place at the kicker position made that a 13-player category.
Heading into Week 4, Kirk Cousins was a hot commodity--and no wonder, since he was tied with Matt Stafford for the 9th most QB points. Knile Davis commanded the #7 spot at RB, thanks to Jamaal Charles' injury-riddled September. Allen Hurns was tied for 6th at WR--a position he would not hold for long. Meanwhile, Niles Paul (7th best TE) was a surprising fantasy starter while Jordan Reed was sidelined.
Of the categories with fewer personnel (QB, TE, K, DST), 16 of the 49 top 12/13 positional players (32.7%) ended up outside the top 12/13 after Week 12. Additionally, 16 of the 49 moved up within the positional rankings over that 9-week span, while the remaining 17 players (34.7%) moved down within those rankings--still holding onto a top 12/13 spot, but no longer as elite as before.
When factoring all players--including the more prevalent RBs and WRs--the percentage breakdowns are 38.9%, 33.3%, and 27.8%, respectively. These percentages are influenced by the fact that half of the top 12 RBs and WRs had dropped from their elite perch by the end of Week 12.
What's amazing is that the results for four categories were parsed so evenly: a third dropped out, a third moved up, and a third merely ticked downward. TEs were the most consistent at maintaining their rankings, with only Paul and Zach Ertz dropping from the list, making way for Jason Witten and Coby Fleener. RBs and WRs (no surprise when you really think about it) were the most volatile.
It's too soon to tell whether this is an anomaly or something to bank future decisions on. But as with all research, it's something to build on. If next year proves similar, and the year after that, we'll have some tangible data on which to make smart calculated risks.