Timely contrarianism is a key ingredient to winning fantasy championships. Here are a few highly unexpected results that I believe are highly probable in this weekend's games:
(1) New England's RBs will outproduce Denver's RBs. That's right, the Patriots (25th most rushing yards allowed per game) will do a better job containing the seemingly unstoppable Ronnie Hillman than the Broncos (fewest rushing yards allowed per game) will do stopping the largely untested Jonas Gray and hit-or-miss Shane Vereen. Start Hillman at your own peril.
(2) I believe Jeremy Hill will be a top 5 fantasy RB this week. This flies in the face of a fact many "experts" are using to downgrade Hill's projections--that the Jaguars have allowed only 3.44 YPC to RBs in the past 5 games. But what they're not saying is that in mind in three of those games, the opposing teams' rushing attacks were led or co-led by relatively poor fantasy options. The experts also point out that Cincy's RG Kevin Zeitler is hurt, and therefore the running game should be downgraded; this contradicts reality, where in the 3 games Zeitler has missed, starting RB Gio Bernard enjoyed 3 of his best 4 games of the season.
(3) Brandon Weeden will be a serviceable QB1. Yes, Dallas is likely to employ a fairly conservative offense. But with Arizona being so good against the run and so bad against the pass, and with Dallas possessing some of the league's top receiving weapons, Weeden will surprise people with 250+ yards and 2+ TDs.
(4) Do not start Robert Griffin III. He's facing an underrated Minnesota D on the road in his first game back since a serious injury. His last rushing TD was in 2012. His last 300-yard passing game was more than a year ago. He has 11 passing TDs in his last 13 games. He's no better than bench fodder today and in most weeks going forward. Today, 200 total yards and anything more than 1 TD would be shocking.
Good luck, everybody.
(1) New England's RBs will outproduce Denver's RBs. That's right, the Patriots (25th most rushing yards allowed per game) will do a better job containing the seemingly unstoppable Ronnie Hillman than the Broncos (fewest rushing yards allowed per game) will do stopping the largely untested Jonas Gray and hit-or-miss Shane Vereen. Start Hillman at your own peril.
(2) I believe Jeremy Hill will be a top 5 fantasy RB this week. This flies in the face of a fact many "experts" are using to downgrade Hill's projections--that the Jaguars have allowed only 3.44 YPC to RBs in the past 5 games. But what they're not saying is that in mind in three of those games, the opposing teams' rushing attacks were led or co-led by relatively poor fantasy options. The experts also point out that Cincy's RG Kevin Zeitler is hurt, and therefore the running game should be downgraded; this contradicts reality, where in the 3 games Zeitler has missed, starting RB Gio Bernard enjoyed 3 of his best 4 games of the season.
(3) Brandon Weeden will be a serviceable QB1. Yes, Dallas is likely to employ a fairly conservative offense. But with Arizona being so good against the run and so bad against the pass, and with Dallas possessing some of the league's top receiving weapons, Weeden will surprise people with 250+ yards and 2+ TDs.
(4) Do not start Robert Griffin III. He's facing an underrated Minnesota D on the road in his first game back since a serious injury. His last rushing TD was in 2012. His last 300-yard passing game was more than a year ago. He has 11 passing TDs in his last 13 games. He's no better than bench fodder today and in most weeks going forward. Today, 200 total yards and anything more than 1 TD would be shocking.
Good luck, everybody.