Yesterday I wrote about WR bargains that ESPN was severely undervaluing. Today, it's on to ESPN's overrated RBs. If you're new to this blog, this is not to simply bash ESPN. They write some fairly good articles and have solid reporting. It's just that their fantasy sensibilities are often skewed, at the expense of fantasy owners who simply want to win.
(1) Marshawn Lynch (ESPN rank: 6th best RB)
Last year I warned that Lynch was due for a major regression. Some believe last week was a fluke. With very tough matchups in all 6 of his final games (yes, he has an unfavorable schedule, and I've encouraged a lot of readers and friends to trade him), I don't see him exceeding 10 points, making him no better than the 12th best RB in Week 12.
(2) Justin Forsett (ESPN rank: 8th best RB)
I was admittedly late to the party re: Forsett. Actually, I've never made it to the party. How is he a top 10 fantasy RB? Hats off to everyone who landed a cheap source of elite production at a difficult position to fill. But I'm betting Flacco will be looking downfield a lot in the 2nd half on the road vs. a Saints team facing a must-win game, limiting Forsett's production. Expect 8 fantasy points at the most.
(3) Denard Robinson (ESPN rank: 10th best RB)
Is it fair for me to undervalue Denard after I was one of his biggest proponents this preseason (when ESPN and nearly every other "expert" were heaping praise on Toby Gerhart)? Absolutely it's fair. Players' values are often fluid. Denard has been lights-out the past four weeks, and his current ESPN value reflects that. But I see a letdown in a road game vs. an angry Colts team licking its wounds after last week's crushing loss to the Patriots. Denard is better than Jonas Gray, but the Colts won't let him beat them. No more than 7 fantasy points.
(4) Jonas Gray (ESPN rank: 24th best RB)
I wrote about Gray earlier this week. He'll return to earth this weekend and throughout most of the rest of the season. 5 fantasy points would be a shock.
(5) Branden Oliver (ESPN rank: 35th best RB)
As long as Ryan Mathews is healthy enough to start, Oliver's production is capped at about 4 fantasy points. ESPN views him as a low-end RB2 or flex option. I view him as waiver/handcuff fodder.
For those with guys playing tonight, good luck.
(1) Marshawn Lynch (ESPN rank: 6th best RB)
Last year I warned that Lynch was due for a major regression. Some believe last week was a fluke. With very tough matchups in all 6 of his final games (yes, he has an unfavorable schedule, and I've encouraged a lot of readers and friends to trade him), I don't see him exceeding 10 points, making him no better than the 12th best RB in Week 12.
(2) Justin Forsett (ESPN rank: 8th best RB)
I was admittedly late to the party re: Forsett. Actually, I've never made it to the party. How is he a top 10 fantasy RB? Hats off to everyone who landed a cheap source of elite production at a difficult position to fill. But I'm betting Flacco will be looking downfield a lot in the 2nd half on the road vs. a Saints team facing a must-win game, limiting Forsett's production. Expect 8 fantasy points at the most.
(3) Denard Robinson (ESPN rank: 10th best RB)
Is it fair for me to undervalue Denard after I was one of his biggest proponents this preseason (when ESPN and nearly every other "expert" were heaping praise on Toby Gerhart)? Absolutely it's fair. Players' values are often fluid. Denard has been lights-out the past four weeks, and his current ESPN value reflects that. But I see a letdown in a road game vs. an angry Colts team licking its wounds after last week's crushing loss to the Patriots. Denard is better than Jonas Gray, but the Colts won't let him beat them. No more than 7 fantasy points.
(4) Jonas Gray (ESPN rank: 24th best RB)
I wrote about Gray earlier this week. He'll return to earth this weekend and throughout most of the rest of the season. 5 fantasy points would be a shock.
(5) Branden Oliver (ESPN rank: 35th best RB)
As long as Ryan Mathews is healthy enough to start, Oliver's production is capped at about 4 fantasy points. ESPN views him as a low-end RB2 or flex option. I view him as waiver/handcuff fodder.
For those with guys playing tonight, good luck.