Last week I made 18 predictions for Week 10, nearly all of which ran completely contrary to what the "experts" were saying, hitting 11 and missing 7, including nailing predictions about Josh McCown and Mark Sanchez. Here's the breakdown:
Wrong:
(1) Frank Gore had a top 10 RB performance. His YPC remained bad, but San Francisco surprisingly kept feeding him the ball. I remain low on him the rest of the season, but I clearly missed this one.
(2) Peyton Hillis got hurt early in Sunday's game, and therefore had no shot of challenging Andre Williams for the Giants' most backfield fantasy points in Week 10.
(3) Doug Baldwin had another bad game; we should now wonder if he'll be a contributor during the fantasy playoffs.
(4) Marion Grice didn't get the goal-line opportunities I had hoped for. Lightning did not strike twice.
(5) Robert Turbin fumbled early and may have surrendered ground to Christine Michael in the battle to back up Marshawn Lynch.
(6) Michael Crabtree's late 50-yard catch was not enough to make him fantasy relevant on the day.
(7) Alex Smith had a solid day. But 15 fantasy points won't help teams win playoff games down the road. He remains a "sell him for whatever you can get" type of player.
Right:
(1) Carson Palmer looked pedestrian before getting knocked out of the game; even before getting hurt, it was clear he was not the elite QB many experts believed.
(2) Golden Tate was the 23rd highest WR fantasy scorer--not what people had been coming to expect. It's not too late to sell high.
(3) Larry Donnell once again showed that his 3-TD game earlier this year was a fluke.
(4) The Dolphins D contained the Lions' offense, but still were not fantasy worthy, as expected.
(5) Roddy White was the 12th highest scoring fantasy WR; he produced as expected.
(6) Ben Rothliesberger's regression was inconceivable to most experts. Not on this site. Those who listened and sold high reaped the rewards.
(7) Ryan Tannehill finished as the 19th best QB in Week 10. That's right: he's not as good as many people think.
(8) Russell Wilson had a very good game, reminding people he can help fantasy owners even when his passing game is off.
(9) As predicted, Mark Sanchez dominated, tying for 3rd among fantasy QBs.
(10) As predicted, Josh McCown had a big day. Every big expert viewed him as unstartable. This site didn't. Those who took the risk had a top 5 fantasy QB.
(11) Julius Thomas was his normal elite self.
As we all know, there's no such thing as fantasy perfection. We learn from mistakes and build on successes. Being a contrarian at the right time should lead to a 60%-65% success rate, which means getting a slight but meaningful edge on your opponents.
Wrong:
(1) Frank Gore had a top 10 RB performance. His YPC remained bad, but San Francisco surprisingly kept feeding him the ball. I remain low on him the rest of the season, but I clearly missed this one.
(2) Peyton Hillis got hurt early in Sunday's game, and therefore had no shot of challenging Andre Williams for the Giants' most backfield fantasy points in Week 10.
(3) Doug Baldwin had another bad game; we should now wonder if he'll be a contributor during the fantasy playoffs.
(4) Marion Grice didn't get the goal-line opportunities I had hoped for. Lightning did not strike twice.
(5) Robert Turbin fumbled early and may have surrendered ground to Christine Michael in the battle to back up Marshawn Lynch.
(6) Michael Crabtree's late 50-yard catch was not enough to make him fantasy relevant on the day.
(7) Alex Smith had a solid day. But 15 fantasy points won't help teams win playoff games down the road. He remains a "sell him for whatever you can get" type of player.
Right:
(1) Carson Palmer looked pedestrian before getting knocked out of the game; even before getting hurt, it was clear he was not the elite QB many experts believed.
(2) Golden Tate was the 23rd highest WR fantasy scorer--not what people had been coming to expect. It's not too late to sell high.
(3) Larry Donnell once again showed that his 3-TD game earlier this year was a fluke.
(4) The Dolphins D contained the Lions' offense, but still were not fantasy worthy, as expected.
(5) Roddy White was the 12th highest scoring fantasy WR; he produced as expected.
(6) Ben Rothliesberger's regression was inconceivable to most experts. Not on this site. Those who listened and sold high reaped the rewards.
(7) Ryan Tannehill finished as the 19th best QB in Week 10. That's right: he's not as good as many people think.
(8) Russell Wilson had a very good game, reminding people he can help fantasy owners even when his passing game is off.
(9) As predicted, Mark Sanchez dominated, tying for 3rd among fantasy QBs.
(10) As predicted, Josh McCown had a big day. Every big expert viewed him as unstartable. This site didn't. Those who took the risk had a top 5 fantasy QB.
(11) Julius Thomas was his normal elite self.
As we all know, there's no such thing as fantasy perfection. We learn from mistakes and build on successes. Being a contrarian at the right time should lead to a 60%-65% success rate, which means getting a slight but meaningful edge on your opponents.