Some people manage their fantasy teams under the premise that past performance equates to future performance. For elite players, this approach usually works. For middling players, it usually doesn't.
Here are five mediocre talents that the "experts" have ranked very high on Week 10, but who I think will be busts:
(1) QB Carson Palmer is not as unstoppable as he appears. After chewing up Washington, Oakland, Philly, and Dallas (none of which have good passing D's), he'll face his toughest test all year against St. Louis. CBS Sports wants you to believe he's the 6th best QB this week; ESPN: 5th best. It's a short-sighted assessment from websites that should know better. Palmer will finish outside the top 10, and given his difficult upcoming schedule (Detroit, Seattle, San Fran, etc.), he should be traded now before his value plummets in the coming weeks.
(2) I sent an e-mail to a co-worker back in August: "Frank Gore will not exceed 500 yards or 5 TDs this season." I might not be exactly right, but the sentiment has held true: the 31-year-old is ranked 24th in RB fantasy points. For someone who has declined sharply in the second halves of seasons the past two years, Gore is not someone to be trusted this week on the road versus an underperforming but underrated Saints D. ESPN believes he'll be the 22nd best RB this week, while CBS Sports ranks him 24th. He's not an RB2; he's an RB4, with an upside capped at 60 total yards and no scores.
(3) You couldn't have asked for much more from WR Golden Tate the past 5 weeks, as he's racked up 4 100+ yard games and 3 TDs. However, Calvin Johnson's return will cause Tate to revert to WR3/4 status. I don't think he'll exceed 7 fantasy points this week, while ESPN (ranked 25th) and especially CBS Sports (ranked 15th) think otherwise.
(4) After TE Larry Donnell's 3-TD performance in Week 4, I warned people on this blog, on Twitter, on ESPN radio, and in Sports Illustrated that there was no bigger sell-high guy in fantasy football. So it was no surprise that he's averaged only 3 fantasy points in his last 4 games. Yet that hasn't stopped ESPN (ranked 5th) and CBS Sports (ranked 4th) from propping up Donnell as an elite Week 10 TE option. Their thinking, presumably, is that Seattle has yielded the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. I'm not buying it. Donnell will finish outside the top 15 this week, scoring no more than 5 fantasy points.
(5) No DST has scored more fantasy points than the Dolphins. But the past two games have accounted for nearly half these points--a trend that will not continue. Ranked 9th by CBS Sports and 7th by ESPN, I view Miami as unstartable this week on the road vs. a Lions team that will finally have a full contingent of offensive weapons. Predicting no more than 4 fantasy points for the Dolphins, making them worthless unless you play in a 24-team league (i.e. they're worthless).
The "experts" have their opinions. But it doesn't mean we have to listen. And at least half the time, we're right not to.
Here are five mediocre talents that the "experts" have ranked very high on Week 10, but who I think will be busts:
(1) QB Carson Palmer is not as unstoppable as he appears. After chewing up Washington, Oakland, Philly, and Dallas (none of which have good passing D's), he'll face his toughest test all year against St. Louis. CBS Sports wants you to believe he's the 6th best QB this week; ESPN: 5th best. It's a short-sighted assessment from websites that should know better. Palmer will finish outside the top 10, and given his difficult upcoming schedule (Detroit, Seattle, San Fran, etc.), he should be traded now before his value plummets in the coming weeks.
(2) I sent an e-mail to a co-worker back in August: "Frank Gore will not exceed 500 yards or 5 TDs this season." I might not be exactly right, but the sentiment has held true: the 31-year-old is ranked 24th in RB fantasy points. For someone who has declined sharply in the second halves of seasons the past two years, Gore is not someone to be trusted this week on the road versus an underperforming but underrated Saints D. ESPN believes he'll be the 22nd best RB this week, while CBS Sports ranks him 24th. He's not an RB2; he's an RB4, with an upside capped at 60 total yards and no scores.
(3) You couldn't have asked for much more from WR Golden Tate the past 5 weeks, as he's racked up 4 100+ yard games and 3 TDs. However, Calvin Johnson's return will cause Tate to revert to WR3/4 status. I don't think he'll exceed 7 fantasy points this week, while ESPN (ranked 25th) and especially CBS Sports (ranked 15th) think otherwise.
(4) After TE Larry Donnell's 3-TD performance in Week 4, I warned people on this blog, on Twitter, on ESPN radio, and in Sports Illustrated that there was no bigger sell-high guy in fantasy football. So it was no surprise that he's averaged only 3 fantasy points in his last 4 games. Yet that hasn't stopped ESPN (ranked 5th) and CBS Sports (ranked 4th) from propping up Donnell as an elite Week 10 TE option. Their thinking, presumably, is that Seattle has yielded the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. I'm not buying it. Donnell will finish outside the top 15 this week, scoring no more than 5 fantasy points.
(5) No DST has scored more fantasy points than the Dolphins. But the past two games have accounted for nearly half these points--a trend that will not continue. Ranked 9th by CBS Sports and 7th by ESPN, I view Miami as unstartable this week on the road vs. a Lions team that will finally have a full contingent of offensive weapons. Predicting no more than 4 fantasy points for the Dolphins, making them worthless unless you play in a 24-team league (i.e. they're worthless).
The "experts" have their opinions. But it doesn't mean we have to listen. And at least half the time, we're right not to.