Are you growing frustrated with a former fantasy stud who’s playing worse than waiver fodder? When considering what to do with an underperforming fantasy player--whether to bench or drop or trade him--first I assess the following four criteria:
I also determine the severity of the yays and nays. A huge role reduction supersedes whatever positives stem from being a young, healthy player. Similarly, I generally steer clear of guys who are way past their prime, regardless of their health, role, and team makeup (e.g. Fred Jackson).
Regarding #1, I've received several Tweets recently asking what to do with Calvin Johnson. Aside from a bum ankle, Calvin is still Calvin: the focal point of the Lions' passing attack. To trade him now for an RB2 like Lamar Miller or even a TE1 like Martellus Bennett is beyond risky. Ask yourself which player you'd want in your fantasy playoff lineup, and understand that if there's a 90% probability Calvin will be healthy later this season, it's much smarter to keep him than to bail when his stock is low.
Chris Johnson is a good case study for #2. The 29-year-old entered the year as ESPN's 25th ranked RB, 13 spots ahead of the seemingly superior (and younger) Chris Ivory. Is it time to cut bait on CJ2K? Yes. His workload (averaging 298 rushes per season since 2009) has aged him far more than merely the passage of time. He's averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry only once in the past four seasons, and there's no reason to believe his efficiency or production will improve.
Toby Gerhart is an easy example for #3. His game-by-game snap count has fallen from 48 to 35 to 30 to 20 to only 10 last weekend. If you identified this trend early on, you were well positioned to trade him for a low-end QB1 or a WR2. Otherwise, you now face the prospect of regretfully dropping your prized fourth round pick.
Finally, we come the four criteria, team personnel issues. Case in point: the Eagles' offensive line. Suspensions and injuries have wreaked havoc on a group that was supposed to help LeSean McCoy win the rushing title. Shady entered the season injury free, still in his prime, and positioned as one of the NFL's only certifiable every-down running backs. But right tackle Lane Johnson returned last week, and center Jason Kelce recently said he's ahead of schedule recovering from hernia surgery and could return in a month. This means McCoy's numbers should continue to improve as the season goes on, and likely will once again be a major fantasy playoff contributor.
Being a fantasy champion requires deliberate thought and action. We don't rush to judgment; we don't act on impulse. Instead, we understand the reasons for a player's poor stat line and then determine what their current and future value will be. It takes work, but it also breeds success.
- Is he injured?
- Is he past his prime?
- Has his role in the offense been reduced?
- Are there team personnel issues affecting his performance?
I also determine the severity of the yays and nays. A huge role reduction supersedes whatever positives stem from being a young, healthy player. Similarly, I generally steer clear of guys who are way past their prime, regardless of their health, role, and team makeup (e.g. Fred Jackson).
Regarding #1, I've received several Tweets recently asking what to do with Calvin Johnson. Aside from a bum ankle, Calvin is still Calvin: the focal point of the Lions' passing attack. To trade him now for an RB2 like Lamar Miller or even a TE1 like Martellus Bennett is beyond risky. Ask yourself which player you'd want in your fantasy playoff lineup, and understand that if there's a 90% probability Calvin will be healthy later this season, it's much smarter to keep him than to bail when his stock is low.
Chris Johnson is a good case study for #2. The 29-year-old entered the year as ESPN's 25th ranked RB, 13 spots ahead of the seemingly superior (and younger) Chris Ivory. Is it time to cut bait on CJ2K? Yes. His workload (averaging 298 rushes per season since 2009) has aged him far more than merely the passage of time. He's averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry only once in the past four seasons, and there's no reason to believe his efficiency or production will improve.
Toby Gerhart is an easy example for #3. His game-by-game snap count has fallen from 48 to 35 to 30 to 20 to only 10 last weekend. If you identified this trend early on, you were well positioned to trade him for a low-end QB1 or a WR2. Otherwise, you now face the prospect of regretfully dropping your prized fourth round pick.
Finally, we come the four criteria, team personnel issues. Case in point: the Eagles' offensive line. Suspensions and injuries have wreaked havoc on a group that was supposed to help LeSean McCoy win the rushing title. Shady entered the season injury free, still in his prime, and positioned as one of the NFL's only certifiable every-down running backs. But right tackle Lane Johnson returned last week, and center Jason Kelce recently said he's ahead of schedule recovering from hernia surgery and could return in a month. This means McCoy's numbers should continue to improve as the season goes on, and likely will once again be a major fantasy playoff contributor.
Being a fantasy champion requires deliberate thought and action. We don't rush to judgment; we don't act on impulse. Instead, we understand the reasons for a player's poor stat line and then determine what their current and future value will be. It takes work, but it also breeds success.