I regularly employ a fantasy strategy I like to call "timely contrarianism." It used to be called "timely contrairiraranism" before I noticed the typos.
The technique is simple: identify players who are too overvalued and too undervalued, and then use trades and the waiver system to ditch the overly hyped guys and retain the guys your opponents are down on.
For example, when everyone was rushing to add Larry Donnell after his 3-TD performance in Week 4, there were several reasons to run the other way. A savvy fantasy owner could have parlayed Donnell's unexpected payday for a WR2, RB2, or better. Today he's probably worth no more than a WR3 or RB3.
On the flip side, tons of people who drafted Eddie Lacy were ready to bail by Week 3 and even Week 4. On Twitter, one guy even asked me whether to start Jerick McKinnon and other lesser talents over the top 5 RB. My response:
"It's not about what players have done; it's what they will do."
https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/518042848831496193
That's timely contrarianism: focusing on players who, despite their recent struggles, have the greatest probabilities of future success.
Examples of guys I'm running toward include:
And there are 50 or more guys I'm running away from--players whose value is much more likely to drop than to rise as the season progresses. They include:
By creating comprehensive lists based on hard-nosed research, you can always be one step ahead of the competition.
The technique is simple: identify players who are too overvalued and too undervalued, and then use trades and the waiver system to ditch the overly hyped guys and retain the guys your opponents are down on.
For example, when everyone was rushing to add Larry Donnell after his 3-TD performance in Week 4, there were several reasons to run the other way. A savvy fantasy owner could have parlayed Donnell's unexpected payday for a WR2, RB2, or better. Today he's probably worth no more than a WR3 or RB3.
On the flip side, tons of people who drafted Eddie Lacy were ready to bail by Week 3 and even Week 4. On Twitter, one guy even asked me whether to start Jerick McKinnon and other lesser talents over the top 5 RB. My response:
"It's not about what players have done; it's what they will do."
https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/518042848831496193
That's timely contrarianism: focusing on players who, despite their recent struggles, have the greatest probabilities of future success.
Examples of guys I'm running toward include:
- Drew Brees
- LeSean McCoy
- Calvin Johnson
- A.J. Green
- Brandon Marshall
And there are 50 or more guys I'm running away from--players whose value is much more likely to drop than to rise as the season progresses. They include:
- Jay Cutler
- Philip Rivers
- DeMarco Murray
- Montee Ball
- Mike Wallace
- Dwayne Allen
By creating comprehensive lists based on hard-nosed research, you can always be one step ahead of the competition.