I'm benching RB Branden Oliver this week. It's not simply because his yardage totals have dropped each week (182 - 124 - 78). It's not because his TDs have dropped, too (2 - 1 - 0).
There's a time in most breakout rookies' seasons when they're forced to adjust. Opposing coaching staffs start drafting game plans around stopping them. How a rookie responds dictates whether they're (a) for real, (b) not quite ready, or (c) put in their place.
I picked up Oliver right before he busted out, and reaped the benefits in weeks 5 and 6. As some of you know from my book, that has no bearing on whether I'll start him again. I feel no emotional tie to Oliver. The question is whether another rostered or free agent RB is more likely to score more fantasy points this week and throughout the season.
Oliver will go on the road to face a Denver D that's allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game. Marshawn Lynch mustered 88 yards on 26 carries (3.4 YPC). Frank Gore: 20 yards on 9 carries (2.2 YPC). And Andre Ellington? 32 yards on 16 carries (2.0 YPC). This is a very good run D.
I predicted in SI.com last week that Philip Rivers would regress after enjoying an unsustainable start. Whether that actually holds, there's no question that Denver's offense is playing on another level, and should put a lot of pressure on the Chargers to keep up.
Oliver's likely 1st half result will be around 25 yards on 9 carries and 20 yards in the air, as San Diego falls behind by 14+ points. By the middle of the 3rd quarter, the team will virtually abandon the run and put the game on Rivers' arm, leaving Oliver with no more than 6 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues.
This is not a knock on Oliver or his potential to be a good or great NFL running back. This is simply applying what I've seen over and over again to current realities: Denver is highly likely to shut down the rookie. That means there are dozens of better options out there for Week 8.
The question is whether fantasy owners will be gutsy enough to make the move.
There's a time in most breakout rookies' seasons when they're forced to adjust. Opposing coaching staffs start drafting game plans around stopping them. How a rookie responds dictates whether they're (a) for real, (b) not quite ready, or (c) put in their place.
I picked up Oliver right before he busted out, and reaped the benefits in weeks 5 and 6. As some of you know from my book, that has no bearing on whether I'll start him again. I feel no emotional tie to Oliver. The question is whether another rostered or free agent RB is more likely to score more fantasy points this week and throughout the season.
Oliver will go on the road to face a Denver D that's allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game. Marshawn Lynch mustered 88 yards on 26 carries (3.4 YPC). Frank Gore: 20 yards on 9 carries (2.2 YPC). And Andre Ellington? 32 yards on 16 carries (2.0 YPC). This is a very good run D.
I predicted in SI.com last week that Philip Rivers would regress after enjoying an unsustainable start. Whether that actually holds, there's no question that Denver's offense is playing on another level, and should put a lot of pressure on the Chargers to keep up.
Oliver's likely 1st half result will be around 25 yards on 9 carries and 20 yards in the air, as San Diego falls behind by 14+ points. By the middle of the 3rd quarter, the team will virtually abandon the run and put the game on Rivers' arm, leaving Oliver with no more than 6 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues.
This is not a knock on Oliver or his potential to be a good or great NFL running back. This is simply applying what I've seen over and over again to current realities: Denver is highly likely to shut down the rookie. That means there are dozens of better options out there for Week 8.
The question is whether fantasy owners will be gutsy enough to make the move.