In late August I drafted in the Real Time Fantasy Sports league--a 120-team, 10-division collection of some of the biggest names in fantasy sports (of which I am ranked somewhere around 120th): Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Brad Evans, Eric Karabell, etc:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/728215093893139 / http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2014/08/reject-one-size-fits-all-draft.html
As we approach the midseason, it's a good opportunity to check in on these picks, and hopefully learn something for next season. I'm happy with how some of these turned out. But it's also instructive to show how way off I was on a number of guys. "What was I thinking?" is a question I've asked myself repeatedly the past two months. But if I can learn from it, and be even more prepared next season, then something good with come from this retrospection.
Starting with 6th overall pick, I made the following selections:
(1) Jimmy Graham (TE)
(2) Antonio Brown (WR)
(3) Zac Stacy (RB)
(4) Matt Stafford (QB)
(5) Torrey Smith (WR)
(6) Seahawks (DST)
(7) Brad Pierce (RB)
(8) Mike Evans (WR).
(9) Jordan Matthews (WR)
(10) Ahmad Bradshaw (RB)
(11) Christine Michael (RB)
(12) Marqise Lee (WR)
(13) Mark Ingram (RB)
(14) Sam Bradford (QB)
(15) Bengals (DST)
(16) Texans (DST)
(17) Alfred Blue (RB)
(18) John Brown (WR)
(19) Greg Zuerlein (K)
(20) Blair Walsh (K)
In this league, there are few good waiver guys available each week, because 240 of the best players are off the board at all times. I was lucky to have since snagged Branden Oliver and Andre Holmes a week before their breakouts. That's the key to this league: finding talent before they show how talented they truly are.
Which picks would I make again if the season started over? Graham, Brown, T Smith, Evans, Bradshaw, Ingram, Bradford (assuming we could rewind to the play before he got hurt), Texans, Blue, and Walsh. Brown is the #1 scoring WR, while Bradshaw is the 6th best RB. Ingram was kicking butt before getting hurt. And Blue was another steal with roughly the 200th overall pick: decent trade bait, and one Arian Foster injury away from RB3/flex status.
As for the other picks, "What was I thinking?" For those of you who have gone through this process, it's often easy to understand why we followed the wrong path:
(1) I believed Stacy would be a 15+ touch RB in a relatively high-powered offense and a great defense--all the makings of an RB2 with upside.
(2) Stafford has been a powerhouse in recent years, but I failed to appreciate how talented this year's QBs were/are, and that grabbing a guy in the 10th round with comparable value should have been my focus.
(3) I misread the Seahawks D as one that would help me win 4-6 games, and the Bengals as a D that could complement them. As some of you have read on this blog, elite defenses in this league consistently finish among the top 30-40 overall fantasy scorers. If you guess right on an elite D, it's like getting 3rd round value in the 6th--a steal.
(4) It was a worthwhile risk to pick Pierce, believing that he had two games while Rice was suspended to assert himself as the #1 back the Ravens envisioned when they drafted him. He still may prove himself, but it's been a tough road thus far.
(5) Jordan Matthews is part of a crowded receiving corps, and has not yet replaced Riley Cooper as the Eagles' #2 receiver.
(6) I devoted a column to my Christine Michael error. Carlos Hyde had been my target, and he was picked right before me. I was admittedly rattled--not proud of that, but being honest.
(7) I envisioned John Brown being one injury away from being part of the WR3 conversation. Unpredictable quarterback play has contributed to his inconsistencies.
(8) One of my preseason "bold predictions," Zuerlein has had only three field goal attempts in the Rams' last four games. In hindsight, I could have grabbed him off waivers if Walsh had gotten hurt.
My goal is to get the tough calls right about 65% of the time. So far, my draft reflects that. But it's a long season. And with Oliver and Holmes and a couple other nice finds on my team, the draft becomes merely a jumping off point--not the end-all, be-all determinant of one's fantasy season.
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/728215093893139 / http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2014/08/reject-one-size-fits-all-draft.html
As we approach the midseason, it's a good opportunity to check in on these picks, and hopefully learn something for next season. I'm happy with how some of these turned out. But it's also instructive to show how way off I was on a number of guys. "What was I thinking?" is a question I've asked myself repeatedly the past two months. But if I can learn from it, and be even more prepared next season, then something good with come from this retrospection.
Starting with 6th overall pick, I made the following selections:
(1) Jimmy Graham (TE)
(2) Antonio Brown (WR)
(3) Zac Stacy (RB)
(4) Matt Stafford (QB)
(5) Torrey Smith (WR)
(6) Seahawks (DST)
(7) Brad Pierce (RB)
(8) Mike Evans (WR).
(9) Jordan Matthews (WR)
(10) Ahmad Bradshaw (RB)
(11) Christine Michael (RB)
(12) Marqise Lee (WR)
(13) Mark Ingram (RB)
(14) Sam Bradford (QB)
(15) Bengals (DST)
(16) Texans (DST)
(17) Alfred Blue (RB)
(18) John Brown (WR)
(19) Greg Zuerlein (K)
(20) Blair Walsh (K)
In this league, there are few good waiver guys available each week, because 240 of the best players are off the board at all times. I was lucky to have since snagged Branden Oliver and Andre Holmes a week before their breakouts. That's the key to this league: finding talent before they show how talented they truly are.
Which picks would I make again if the season started over? Graham, Brown, T Smith, Evans, Bradshaw, Ingram, Bradford (assuming we could rewind to the play before he got hurt), Texans, Blue, and Walsh. Brown is the #1 scoring WR, while Bradshaw is the 6th best RB. Ingram was kicking butt before getting hurt. And Blue was another steal with roughly the 200th overall pick: decent trade bait, and one Arian Foster injury away from RB3/flex status.
As for the other picks, "What was I thinking?" For those of you who have gone through this process, it's often easy to understand why we followed the wrong path:
(1) I believed Stacy would be a 15+ touch RB in a relatively high-powered offense and a great defense--all the makings of an RB2 with upside.
(2) Stafford has been a powerhouse in recent years, but I failed to appreciate how talented this year's QBs were/are, and that grabbing a guy in the 10th round with comparable value should have been my focus.
(3) I misread the Seahawks D as one that would help me win 4-6 games, and the Bengals as a D that could complement them. As some of you have read on this blog, elite defenses in this league consistently finish among the top 30-40 overall fantasy scorers. If you guess right on an elite D, it's like getting 3rd round value in the 6th--a steal.
(4) It was a worthwhile risk to pick Pierce, believing that he had two games while Rice was suspended to assert himself as the #1 back the Ravens envisioned when they drafted him. He still may prove himself, but it's been a tough road thus far.
(5) Jordan Matthews is part of a crowded receiving corps, and has not yet replaced Riley Cooper as the Eagles' #2 receiver.
(6) I devoted a column to my Christine Michael error. Carlos Hyde had been my target, and he was picked right before me. I was admittedly rattled--not proud of that, but being honest.
(7) I envisioned John Brown being one injury away from being part of the WR3 conversation. Unpredictable quarterback play has contributed to his inconsistencies.
(8) One of my preseason "bold predictions," Zuerlein has had only three field goal attempts in the Rams' last four games. In hindsight, I could have grabbed him off waivers if Walsh had gotten hurt.
My goal is to get the tough calls right about 65% of the time. So far, my draft reflects that. But it's a long season. And with Oliver and Holmes and a couple other nice finds on my team, the draft becomes merely a jumping off point--not the end-all, be-all determinant of one's fantasy season.