A brief word about meaningless statistics that skew projections and wreak havoc on fantasy teams. This morning I read the following nugget on ESPN's Donald Brown profile page:
"Brown has 4.7 yards per carry in eight career meetings with Jacksonville."
Brown is the Chargers' presumptive starting RB and "bellcow" this weekend because superior tailbacks Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead are hurt. He's a hot waiver pickup in what should be a convincing San Diego win vs. one of the league's worst defenses.
But anytime you read someone's career stats vs. an opponent, extract it from your brain and move on to more useful information. Why? Because it's irrelevant filler that tries to pass for real insight and analysis.
Almost none of the conditions that led to Brown's surprisingly high 4.7 YPC vs. the Jags apply today:
ESPN's news byte implies that Brown's exceptional history against Jacksonville portends comparable production this weekend. The piece ignores the fact that the middling RB's overall career mark is 4.2 YPC, while this season he has looked anything but fantasy worthy (2.0 YPC).
While so many people rush to pick up and start Brown, I suggest approaching his potential much more conservatively. As for ESPN's blurb, don't buy into all of the information people feed you. First, assess whether the statistics have any relevance in today's fantasy world.
"Brown has 4.7 yards per carry in eight career meetings with Jacksonville."
Brown is the Chargers' presumptive starting RB and "bellcow" this weekend because superior tailbacks Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead are hurt. He's a hot waiver pickup in what should be a convincing San Diego win vs. one of the league's worst defenses.
But anytime you read someone's career stats vs. an opponent, extract it from your brain and move on to more useful information. Why? Because it's irrelevant filler that tries to pass for real insight and analysis.
Almost none of the conditions that led to Brown's surprisingly high 4.7 YPC vs. the Jags apply today:
- Brown was a Colt for his entire five-year career before joining the Chargers this season. Different team, different coaches, different personnel, different system.
- The Jaguars' defense is quite different than they were in 2009, when Brown faced them in his first NFL game. Different coaches, different personnel, different system.
ESPN's news byte implies that Brown's exceptional history against Jacksonville portends comparable production this weekend. The piece ignores the fact that the middling RB's overall career mark is 4.2 YPC, while this season he has looked anything but fantasy worthy (2.0 YPC).
While so many people rush to pick up and start Brown, I suggest approaching his potential much more conservatively. As for ESPN's blurb, don't buy into all of the information people feed you. First, assess whether the statistics have any relevance in today's fantasy world.