Jaguars.com senior writer @JohnOehser reported today that "Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley said Denard Robinson will continue to get more reps at running back. Earning them."
https://twitter.com/JohnOehser/status/514102369601064960
I've discussed Jags starting RB Toby Gerhart for about a month on this blog. His rise and fall is a microcosm of the mystery and (somewhat paradoxically) the predictability of fantasy football. Gerhart's offseason arrival in Jackonsville propelled him into the top 20 of many "expert" RB rankings. Like many other top 20 RBs (LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington, etc.), Gerhart has underperformed. But unlike many other starting RBs, his grip on the starting job was tenuous from the start.
And so the mystery of fantasy football comes down how and why certain players become fantasy irrelevant, while others are given--and take advantage of--plenty of chances to rebound.
Meanwhile, the predictability of fantasy football lies with careful research and analysis that goes beyond last year's or last week's numbers. In FF4W, I devote part of a chapter on the impact of offensive lines on RB stats. Jacksonville's horrible o-line, therefore, was a predictor of how Gerhart would fare this year. Additionally, his lack of experience as an every down back spelled trouble, as some RBs are better suited as change-of-pace backs, and are unable to be consistent chain-movers when thrust into full-time roles (20-24 touches per game).
The more predictors used to assess a player's future success, the more accurate the prediction.
It's not at all surprising that Denard Robinson is continuing to eat into Gerhart's workload, and it won't be surprising if Robinson overcomes his team's o-line deficiencies more successfully than his counterpart. I avoided a bad draft pick because in August there was ample evidence that this would happen.
That's not to say I avoid mistakes altogether. Seattle's defense has been uninspiring from an fantasy perspective; I mistakenly ignored Jordan Reed's Achilles heel (injury prone); I picked Christine Michael over Jeremy Hill; etc.
But much more often than not, my contrarian approach pays off--not because it's contrarian, but because it connects dots that are not seen or valued in the "expert" universe. Gerhart is one example. And if you identify 10-12 Gerharts every preseason (so you'll know who to avoid), you're almost guaranteed to start the season with the best roster in your league.
https://twitter.com/JohnOehser/status/514102369601064960
I've discussed Jags starting RB Toby Gerhart for about a month on this blog. His rise and fall is a microcosm of the mystery and (somewhat paradoxically) the predictability of fantasy football. Gerhart's offseason arrival in Jackonsville propelled him into the top 20 of many "expert" RB rankings. Like many other top 20 RBs (LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington, etc.), Gerhart has underperformed. But unlike many other starting RBs, his grip on the starting job was tenuous from the start.
And so the mystery of fantasy football comes down how and why certain players become fantasy irrelevant, while others are given--and take advantage of--plenty of chances to rebound.
Meanwhile, the predictability of fantasy football lies with careful research and analysis that goes beyond last year's or last week's numbers. In FF4W, I devote part of a chapter on the impact of offensive lines on RB stats. Jacksonville's horrible o-line, therefore, was a predictor of how Gerhart would fare this year. Additionally, his lack of experience as an every down back spelled trouble, as some RBs are better suited as change-of-pace backs, and are unable to be consistent chain-movers when thrust into full-time roles (20-24 touches per game).
The more predictors used to assess a player's future success, the more accurate the prediction.
It's not at all surprising that Denard Robinson is continuing to eat into Gerhart's workload, and it won't be surprising if Robinson overcomes his team's o-line deficiencies more successfully than his counterpart. I avoided a bad draft pick because in August there was ample evidence that this would happen.
That's not to say I avoid mistakes altogether. Seattle's defense has been uninspiring from an fantasy perspective; I mistakenly ignored Jordan Reed's Achilles heel (injury prone); I picked Christine Michael over Jeremy Hill; etc.
But much more often than not, my contrarian approach pays off--not because it's contrarian, but because it connects dots that are not seen or valued in the "expert" universe. Gerhart is one example. And if you identify 10-12 Gerharts every preseason (so you'll know who to avoid), you're almost guaranteed to start the season with the best roster in your league.