A few weeks ago, a very well known fantasy football "expert" presented a draft strategy. By following it, he said, "I can guarantee a successful 2014 campaign." It entailed the following:
Round 1 -- Draft an RB with few exceptions
Round 2 -- Draft a WR unless you got Calvin Johnson in Round 1
Rounds 3-4 -- Draft an RB or WR
Round 5 -- Draft an RB, WR, or TE
And so on.
He recommends not drafting a QB until Round 8, and not drafting a DST until Round 14. Using standard scoring rules, the 6th best DST last year scored as many fantasy points as Reggie Bush (10th best RB) and more points than Vincent Jackson (14th best WR). So while Bush and Jackson fly off the boards in rounds 3, 4, or 5, apparently there's no need to grab a top-flight DST until the end of your draft.
I respect this person immensely. But I couldn't disagree more with his philosophy. Here's why:
Draft selections should not be pre-planned. As many of you know from my book and this blog, I use a color-schemed draft board to identify positions and tiers, so that when it's my turn to pick, I simply consult my board and select the highest-impact player available. The only exception is when I'm in danger of missing out on an underrated, high-ceiling player at a position where I'm very weak.
At my 12-team, 20-round draft last Thursday, I had no idea which player I'd take when. Drafting should be an organic process, requiring consideration of others' draft selections to understand where upcoming positional runs are likely, who might be available to you a round or two later, etc.
Starting with 6th overall pick, I made the following selections:
(1) Jimmy Graham (TE)
(2) Antonio Brown (WR)
(3) Zac Stacy (RB)
(4) Matt Stafford (QB)
So no, I didn't have all RBs and WRs at the outset. And in fairness to the "expert," he acknowledged that Graham could be a good first round pick. But I opted for elite players at as many positions as I could, while also seeking to start mini-runs on positions when the position had been ignored for a while. I was left with one of the best QBs, one of the best WRs, the #1 TE, and an RB who, stretching his 12-game stats in 2013 to a full 16-game season, would have scored the 6th most fantasy points among RBs.
Next I went Torrey Smith (WR), Seahawks (DST), Brad Pierce (RB), and Mike Evans (WR). Smith could be a top 15 WR this year, while the Seahawks are arguably the #1 DST, and are in position to once again return 4th round value. Pierce was a bit of a stretch--a high risk, high reward selection--while Evans was a safer #3 WR with fairly high upside.
Clearly I bucked the "expert's" system. But if I'd waited until Round 8 to grab a QB, the elite and near-elite ones would have been gone. The poor guys who waited until Round 8 grabbed Nick Foles and RGIII. I could have gotten Andre Johnson or Roddy White instead of Stafford. But if I believe Stafford is a top 4 QB, why would I settle for a top 8 QB just to get an aging WR who's already peaked (although admittedly, still good)?
In the 9th round, while my opponents were snatching up middling talents like Jonathan Stewart, Hakeem Nicks, and Tavon Austin, I went with the higher upside Jordan Matthews (WR), followed by Ahmad Bradshaw (RB), Christine Michael (RB) (a regrettable stretch at that spot), and Marqise Lee (WR).
Boom. I've now got 4 RBs and 5 WRs. Are all of the week-to-week starters? No. But I have enough strong talent to field a competitive team around a near-elite QB, an elite TE, and an elite DST.
The rest of the draft went like this:
(13) Mark Ingram (RB) - maybe the steal of the draft
(14) Sam Bradford (QB) - oh, what might have been
(15) Bengals (DST) - see below
(16) Texans (DST) - keep looking below
(17) Alfred Blue (RB) - could be Arian Foster's backup
(18) John Brown (WR) - expected to play majority of Cards' snaps
(19) Greg Zuerlein (K)
(20) Blair Walsh (K) - see below again
Long before the draft, I mapped out a scenario where I took the Seahawks. But then what would I need? How confident would I feel when they play the Packers, Broncos, @ Chargers, and @ Eagles? Can I get more value in those weeks, not to mention Seattle's bye week?
Cincinnati and Houston are both projected to be top 10 DSTs. And one or both have easy games when Seattle doesn't. So taking them accomplished two things: (1) it helped ensure I'd get more value in at least 5 out of 16 weeks, and (2) it prevented opponents from grabbing top 10 DSTs.
The two-kicker decision was different: The Rams have a bye in Week 4. Rather than draft a low-end flex player, only to drop him after Week 3 to make room for a replacement kicker, I decided to add a potential top 5 kicker with an easy matchup (home vs. the Falcons) in Week 4. Whichever kicker is doing better at that point, I'll keep him, drop the other, and select a backup QB or TE for when Stafford or Graham go on their bye weeks.
My system was not flawless. I made some mistakes. And by mid-season, it will be clear just how many mistakes I actually made. But on this day, I can attest that my strategy of moving organically through a draft is much more effective than predetermining which positions I'll choose from in each round. One approach opens the possibilities for great finds wherever they exist; the other limits possibilities arbitrarily, forcing a drafter to "settle" for a player when a higher upside one at another position is there for the taking.
Do your own research and make your own decisions. But never buy into a one-size-fits-all draft approach. Being a fantasy champion is never that easy.
Round 1 -- Draft an RB with few exceptions
Round 2 -- Draft a WR unless you got Calvin Johnson in Round 1
Rounds 3-4 -- Draft an RB or WR
Round 5 -- Draft an RB, WR, or TE
And so on.
He recommends not drafting a QB until Round 8, and not drafting a DST until Round 14. Using standard scoring rules, the 6th best DST last year scored as many fantasy points as Reggie Bush (10th best RB) and more points than Vincent Jackson (14th best WR). So while Bush and Jackson fly off the boards in rounds 3, 4, or 5, apparently there's no need to grab a top-flight DST until the end of your draft.
I respect this person immensely. But I couldn't disagree more with his philosophy. Here's why:
Draft selections should not be pre-planned. As many of you know from my book and this blog, I use a color-schemed draft board to identify positions and tiers, so that when it's my turn to pick, I simply consult my board and select the highest-impact player available. The only exception is when I'm in danger of missing out on an underrated, high-ceiling player at a position where I'm very weak.
At my 12-team, 20-round draft last Thursday, I had no idea which player I'd take when. Drafting should be an organic process, requiring consideration of others' draft selections to understand where upcoming positional runs are likely, who might be available to you a round or two later, etc.
Starting with 6th overall pick, I made the following selections:
(1) Jimmy Graham (TE)
(2) Antonio Brown (WR)
(3) Zac Stacy (RB)
(4) Matt Stafford (QB)
So no, I didn't have all RBs and WRs at the outset. And in fairness to the "expert," he acknowledged that Graham could be a good first round pick. But I opted for elite players at as many positions as I could, while also seeking to start mini-runs on positions when the position had been ignored for a while. I was left with one of the best QBs, one of the best WRs, the #1 TE, and an RB who, stretching his 12-game stats in 2013 to a full 16-game season, would have scored the 6th most fantasy points among RBs.
Next I went Torrey Smith (WR), Seahawks (DST), Brad Pierce (RB), and Mike Evans (WR). Smith could be a top 15 WR this year, while the Seahawks are arguably the #1 DST, and are in position to once again return 4th round value. Pierce was a bit of a stretch--a high risk, high reward selection--while Evans was a safer #3 WR with fairly high upside.
Clearly I bucked the "expert's" system. But if I'd waited until Round 8 to grab a QB, the elite and near-elite ones would have been gone. The poor guys who waited until Round 8 grabbed Nick Foles and RGIII. I could have gotten Andre Johnson or Roddy White instead of Stafford. But if I believe Stafford is a top 4 QB, why would I settle for a top 8 QB just to get an aging WR who's already peaked (although admittedly, still good)?
In the 9th round, while my opponents were snatching up middling talents like Jonathan Stewart, Hakeem Nicks, and Tavon Austin, I went with the higher upside Jordan Matthews (WR), followed by Ahmad Bradshaw (RB), Christine Michael (RB) (a regrettable stretch at that spot), and Marqise Lee (WR).
Boom. I've now got 4 RBs and 5 WRs. Are all of the week-to-week starters? No. But I have enough strong talent to field a competitive team around a near-elite QB, an elite TE, and an elite DST.
The rest of the draft went like this:
(13) Mark Ingram (RB) - maybe the steal of the draft
(14) Sam Bradford (QB) - oh, what might have been
(15) Bengals (DST) - see below
(16) Texans (DST) - keep looking below
(17) Alfred Blue (RB) - could be Arian Foster's backup
(18) John Brown (WR) - expected to play majority of Cards' snaps
(19) Greg Zuerlein (K)
(20) Blair Walsh (K) - see below again
Long before the draft, I mapped out a scenario where I took the Seahawks. But then what would I need? How confident would I feel when they play the Packers, Broncos, @ Chargers, and @ Eagles? Can I get more value in those weeks, not to mention Seattle's bye week?
Cincinnati and Houston are both projected to be top 10 DSTs. And one or both have easy games when Seattle doesn't. So taking them accomplished two things: (1) it helped ensure I'd get more value in at least 5 out of 16 weeks, and (2) it prevented opponents from grabbing top 10 DSTs.
The two-kicker decision was different: The Rams have a bye in Week 4. Rather than draft a low-end flex player, only to drop him after Week 3 to make room for a replacement kicker, I decided to add a potential top 5 kicker with an easy matchup (home vs. the Falcons) in Week 4. Whichever kicker is doing better at that point, I'll keep him, drop the other, and select a backup QB or TE for when Stafford or Graham go on their bye weeks.
My system was not flawless. I made some mistakes. And by mid-season, it will be clear just how many mistakes I actually made. But on this day, I can attest that my strategy of moving organically through a draft is much more effective than predetermining which positions I'll choose from in each round. One approach opens the possibilities for great finds wherever they exist; the other limits possibilities arbitrarily, forcing a drafter to "settle" for a player when a higher upside one at another position is there for the taking.
Do your own research and make your own decisions. But never buy into a one-size-fits-all draft approach. Being a fantasy champion is never that easy.