Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions FLASHBACK:
#5 . . .
Last preseason I predicted that the Seahawks, 49ers, and Texans DSTs would finish among the top 50 overall fantasy scorers. In nearly every league, DSTs and kickers are drafted in the final two rounds. Those who have read "Fantasy Football for Winners" understand the statistics behind this misconception.
Take last year for example: in standard scoring leagues, three DSTs finished not just among the top 50 fantasy scorers, but among the top 43. That's right: three DSTs returned 3rd round to 5th round value.
Admittedly, I didn't nail all three DSTs. Seattle finished #32 overall, but San Francisco ended up 68th--not too shabby, but not what I predicted. And Houston? Defensive injuries, a bad QB, and an underperforming running game put a lot of pressure on this unit; and let's face it, the defense just didn't do as well as I thought it would, finishing well outside the top 100.
But let's look at what ESPN and Yahoo thought of DSTs:
So if you listened to ESPN and waited to draft the Seahawks until the 9th or 10th round, a hardcore fantasy opponent would have snatched them up, likely leaving you with an inferior DST and costing you several fantasy points each week.
To this day, I continue to read "expert" analysis about DSTs being a throwaway position on draft day. Few beliefs are more off-base or more costly to self-respecting fantasy owners. The reality is that elite DSTs frequently score as many points as near-elite RBs and near-elite WRs. So embrace this reality, or draft at your own peril.
#5 . . .
Last preseason I predicted that the Seahawks, 49ers, and Texans DSTs would finish among the top 50 overall fantasy scorers. In nearly every league, DSTs and kickers are drafted in the final two rounds. Those who have read "Fantasy Football for Winners" understand the statistics behind this misconception.
Take last year for example: in standard scoring leagues, three DSTs finished not just among the top 50 fantasy scorers, but among the top 43. That's right: three DSTs returned 3rd round to 5th round value.
Admittedly, I didn't nail all three DSTs. Seattle finished #32 overall, but San Francisco ended up 68th--not too shabby, but not what I predicted. And Houston? Defensive injuries, a bad QB, and an underperforming running game put a lot of pressure on this unit; and let's face it, the defense just didn't do as well as I thought it would, finishing well outside the top 100.
But let's look at what ESPN and Yahoo thought of DSTs:
- ESPN – No DST among top 100 overall fantasy scorers
- Yahoo – No DST among top 130 overall fantasy scorers
So if you listened to ESPN and waited to draft the Seahawks until the 9th or 10th round, a hardcore fantasy opponent would have snatched them up, likely leaving you with an inferior DST and costing you several fantasy points each week.
To this day, I continue to read "expert" analysis about DSTs being a throwaway position on draft day. Few beliefs are more off-base or more costly to self-respecting fantasy owners. The reality is that elite DSTs frequently score as many points as near-elite RBs and near-elite WRs. So embrace this reality, or draft at your own peril.