Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions:
#2 . . .
Toby Gerhart will not be a top 30 fantasy RB this season.
Recently I urged readers not to buy into the Gerhart hype. After hours of meditative deliberation, several family meetings, and visits to nine different places of worship, I'm willing to put this prediction on the line as one of this preseason's 10 big ones.
ESPN ranks Gerhart as the 22nd best fantasy RB (49th overall). Yahoo and CBS Sports go even further, insisting that he's the 15th best RB (31st and 28th overall, respectively). They believe last year's 4.7 YPC and lack of "wear on the tires" should position him as a solid RB2 who's still in his prime. And while many teams selfishly (from a fantasy perspective) use RBBCs, Jacksonville apparently still believes in the bell-cow RB who nets 22-25 touches per game.
On my draft sheet, Gerhart is the 33rd best RB--right between Stevan Ridley and Ray Rice--and 90th overall. In other words, unless all of my draft competitors tomorrow night see what I see, I'm very content to let someone else draft this overrated RB in the late 4th or early 5th round.
Backup RBs Jordan Todman, Denard Robinson, and Storm Johnson might not see many touches individually. But I think they'll see enough to cut into Gerhart's workload, meaning he'll need to do a lot with 16-20 touches per game to validate experts' rankings. And frankly, for a guy who's never had more than 109 carries in any of his four seasons, Gerhart's a prime candidate to wear down as the year progresses.
Think I'm crazy or stupid? Maybe I'm both. Or maybe I'm not buying into his bizarrely efficient 7.9 YPC in 2013. He's a 3.8 YPC to 4.2 YPC guy with three younger RBs waiting in the wings. And is he a really a guy who's going to move the chains all game? Not if the Jags are playing from behind, which I expect will happen frequently due to a fairly tough scheule beginning with games against the Eagles, Redskins, Colts, and Chargers.
The experts' current rankings don't add up. Gerhart is an unproven RB who will not come close to meeting experts' expectations. So when you're picking in the middle of the 5th round and desperately need a second RB, don't take the bait: grab an elite QB, WR, or TE instead, and trust that the Bernard Pierces, Devonta Freemans, and even the Lance Dunbars will still be waiting for you several rounds later.
#2 . . .
Toby Gerhart will not be a top 30 fantasy RB this season.
Recently I urged readers not to buy into the Gerhart hype. After hours of meditative deliberation, several family meetings, and visits to nine different places of worship, I'm willing to put this prediction on the line as one of this preseason's 10 big ones.
ESPN ranks Gerhart as the 22nd best fantasy RB (49th overall). Yahoo and CBS Sports go even further, insisting that he's the 15th best RB (31st and 28th overall, respectively). They believe last year's 4.7 YPC and lack of "wear on the tires" should position him as a solid RB2 who's still in his prime. And while many teams selfishly (from a fantasy perspective) use RBBCs, Jacksonville apparently still believes in the bell-cow RB who nets 22-25 touches per game.
On my draft sheet, Gerhart is the 33rd best RB--right between Stevan Ridley and Ray Rice--and 90th overall. In other words, unless all of my draft competitors tomorrow night see what I see, I'm very content to let someone else draft this overrated RB in the late 4th or early 5th round.
Backup RBs Jordan Todman, Denard Robinson, and Storm Johnson might not see many touches individually. But I think they'll see enough to cut into Gerhart's workload, meaning he'll need to do a lot with 16-20 touches per game to validate experts' rankings. And frankly, for a guy who's never had more than 109 carries in any of his four seasons, Gerhart's a prime candidate to wear down as the year progresses.
Think I'm crazy or stupid? Maybe I'm both. Or maybe I'm not buying into his bizarrely efficient 7.9 YPC in 2013. He's a 3.8 YPC to 4.2 YPC guy with three younger RBs waiting in the wings. And is he a really a guy who's going to move the chains all game? Not if the Jags are playing from behind, which I expect will happen frequently due to a fairly tough scheule beginning with games against the Eagles, Redskins, Colts, and Chargers.
The experts' current rankings don't add up. Gerhart is an unproven RB who will not come close to meeting experts' expectations. So when you're picking in the middle of the 5th round and desperately need a second RB, don't take the bait: grab an elite QB, WR, or TE instead, and trust that the Bernard Pierces, Devonta Freemans, and even the Lance Dunbars will still be waiting for you several rounds later.