Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions:
#9 . . .
We're continuing the countdown of the top 10 unconventional fantasy predictions for 2014. Last year I nailed almost all of 'em, including the "crazy" one I tagged at #9:
"Adrian Peterson's production will drop at least 20% from last season's totals" and "he won't be a top 3 RB by season's end."
Damn. How crazy was that? ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo, SI.com, . . . nearly every "expert" out there--the folks your friends and co-workers listen to religiously, picked AP as the #1 overall fantasy stud. 15 non-QBs scored more fantasy points than AP. If you'd drafted the Seahawks defense first overall instead of AP, you would have scored more points.
This is why hundreds of hours of research trumps lazy prognosticating every time. If the "experts" had paid attention to the warning signs, they would have realized that a 28-year-old RB coming off a career year with nearly 400 touches was not likely to come close to duplicating the output. And if you'd followed my lead, you would have had a much better chance of winning your league.
So what's this year's #9 "crazy" fantasy prediction? Pierre Garcon won't be a top 25 fantasy WR. This is yet another case of well known fantasy sites jumping on the bandwagon without reading between the lines. Garcon was the 14th highest scoring WR last season thanks to a ridiculous 113 receptions off of an even more ridiculous 184 targets.
There was no Pierre Garcon back then. Jordan Reed battled concussion symptoms for a good chunk of the season. And Washington's defense was so bad, they were forced to air out the ball a lot against softer defenses that--let's face it--couldn't have cared less about giving up a 10-yard completion to Garcon while up 20 points with three minutes left in the fourth quarter.
So Garcon's output--while quite impressive--is unlikely to be duplicated or even closely replicated this season. I've participated in dozens of mock drafts and have been shocked to see Garcon going as early as the third and fourth rounds. What a waste of a pick.
No doubt, ESPN, CBS Sports, and the other big-wig sites are not going to hire me anytime soon for making such a crazy prediction. But with a deep understanding of the team (doesn't hurt that I watch every game, being a D.C. resident since 1995), its personnel, and its game plan heading into this season, I'm making the call that the "experts" are too scared to make.
#9 . . .
We're continuing the countdown of the top 10 unconventional fantasy predictions for 2014. Last year I nailed almost all of 'em, including the "crazy" one I tagged at #9:
"Adrian Peterson's production will drop at least 20% from last season's totals" and "he won't be a top 3 RB by season's end."
Damn. How crazy was that? ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo, SI.com, . . . nearly every "expert" out there--the folks your friends and co-workers listen to religiously, picked AP as the #1 overall fantasy stud. 15 non-QBs scored more fantasy points than AP. If you'd drafted the Seahawks defense first overall instead of AP, you would have scored more points.
This is why hundreds of hours of research trumps lazy prognosticating every time. If the "experts" had paid attention to the warning signs, they would have realized that a 28-year-old RB coming off a career year with nearly 400 touches was not likely to come close to duplicating the output. And if you'd followed my lead, you would have had a much better chance of winning your league.
So what's this year's #9 "crazy" fantasy prediction? Pierre Garcon won't be a top 25 fantasy WR. This is yet another case of well known fantasy sites jumping on the bandwagon without reading between the lines. Garcon was the 14th highest scoring WR last season thanks to a ridiculous 113 receptions off of an even more ridiculous 184 targets.
There was no Pierre Garcon back then. Jordan Reed battled concussion symptoms for a good chunk of the season. And Washington's defense was so bad, they were forced to air out the ball a lot against softer defenses that--let's face it--couldn't have cared less about giving up a 10-yard completion to Garcon while up 20 points with three minutes left in the fourth quarter.
So Garcon's output--while quite impressive--is unlikely to be duplicated or even closely replicated this season. I've participated in dozens of mock drafts and have been shocked to see Garcon going as early as the third and fourth rounds. What a waste of a pick.
No doubt, ESPN, CBS Sports, and the other big-wig sites are not going to hire me anytime soon for making such a crazy prediction. But with a deep understanding of the team (doesn't hurt that I watch every game, being a D.C. resident since 1995), its personnel, and its game plan heading into this season, I'm making the call that the "experts" are too scared to make.