One more comment on Pierre Garcon, my pick for one of 2014's biggest WR busts. Nearly everyone is high on this guy, viewing last season's outburst not as an outlier, but as the basis for future production. ESPN is one of many "expert" sites that has fallen victim to this misguided mentality, predicting that he'll score more fantasy points this season than all but nine WRs:
http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/TMR140326/matthew-berry-offseason-2014-fantasy-football-rankings-top-200
There are only nine better WRs? Not even close.
Garcon did less with more opportunities than nearly every other WR1 and WR2 in 2013. His 184 targets led the league--more than 30% of the team's total. Only two other players (Anquan Boldin and Vincent Jackson) were targeted a higher percentage of the time--and only just barely.
Despite being the NFL's most targeted receiver, Garcon averaged only 11.9 yards per reception--good for 66th place. And even with a league-high 113 catches, he mustered only 16 receptions over 20 yards--good for 17th place.
The "experts" have failed to understand how the addition of DeSean Jackson and a healthy Jordan Reed will, at a minimum, cut Garcon's targets by about one-third. One need only calculate what Jackson's numbers would have been had he received Garcon's 184 targets. Assuming a consistent rate of return, Jackson's impressive 1,332-yard, 9-TD season would have measured out to 1,945 yards and 13 TDs.
In other words, all things being equal, if Jackson had received 184 targets last year, "experts" would be calling him a first round pick, somewhere between LeSean McCoy and Calvin Johnson.
Logic conquers hunches every time. The hunch is that Garcon will be as good or better than last year's numbers. The reality is that, with a cut in targets and a reduction in scoring opportunities, Garcon is a huge fantasy risk until at least the 6th round.
http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/TMR140326/matthew-berry-offseason-2014-fantasy-football-rankings-top-200
There are only nine better WRs? Not even close.
Garcon did less with more opportunities than nearly every other WR1 and WR2 in 2013. His 184 targets led the league--more than 30% of the team's total. Only two other players (Anquan Boldin and Vincent Jackson) were targeted a higher percentage of the time--and only just barely.
Despite being the NFL's most targeted receiver, Garcon averaged only 11.9 yards per reception--good for 66th place. And even with a league-high 113 catches, he mustered only 16 receptions over 20 yards--good for 17th place.
The "experts" have failed to understand how the addition of DeSean Jackson and a healthy Jordan Reed will, at a minimum, cut Garcon's targets by about one-third. One need only calculate what Jackson's numbers would have been had he received Garcon's 184 targets. Assuming a consistent rate of return, Jackson's impressive 1,332-yard, 9-TD season would have measured out to 1,945 yards and 13 TDs.
In other words, all things being equal, if Jackson had received 184 targets last year, "experts" would be calling him a first round pick, somewhere between LeSean McCoy and Calvin Johnson.
Logic conquers hunches every time. The hunch is that Garcon will be as good or better than last year's numbers. The reality is that, with a cut in targets and a reduction in scoring opportunities, Garcon is a huge fantasy risk until at least the 6th round.