Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions:
#5 . . .
Michael Floyd will be a top 12 fantasy WR this season. Naturally, the “experts” disagree, placing him in the mid-teens, twenties, or even worse. Most believe Larry Fitzgerald still reigns supreme in Arizona. They can’t foresee the fact that late last season, Floyd started overtaking Fitzgerald as the Cardinals’ elite receiving weapon.
If you’ve read my prognostications for a while, you know that I never play things safe. I leave it to the “experts” to tell you what you already know, or to make crazy predictions that seem clever, when in fact they’re just plain crazy.
Take last season, Week 13: Thanksgiving. Matt Flynn, Matt McGloin, Nate Burleson, and Jerricho Cotchery were trendy picks. ESPN predicted these guys would average 10.25 fantasy points that day, based primarily on these players’ recent success—a common mistake by “expert” sites, as they spend less time on hardcore research and more time cranking out meaningless “top 300” rankings.
I took to Facebook, Twitter, and my bedroom window, shouting from the rooftops: “Don’t pick up these guys! Don’t start these guys! Don’t be idiots!”
https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/406068262372249600
The result? These four trendy picks averaged 3.25 fantasy points that day. Those who religiously followed ESPN took a beating that week. That’s why laziness is never a recipe for success. You need—hell, we all need—fantasy experts we can trust. We need true differentiators, not blasé rankings that are wrong as often as they’re right.
I’m not saying that my predictions will always be correct. No one can make those claims. But history shows that when I make a call, it’s based on hard-nosed research and detailed analysis. Easy picks are boring and lead to middling performance. The hard picks are exciting and lead to fantasy titles.
So when someone picks Fitzgerald before Floyd in your draft, take a moment to smile. Then make damn sure you get Floyd before an opponent pounces.
#5 . . .
Michael Floyd will be a top 12 fantasy WR this season. Naturally, the “experts” disagree, placing him in the mid-teens, twenties, or even worse. Most believe Larry Fitzgerald still reigns supreme in Arizona. They can’t foresee the fact that late last season, Floyd started overtaking Fitzgerald as the Cardinals’ elite receiving weapon.
If you’ve read my prognostications for a while, you know that I never play things safe. I leave it to the “experts” to tell you what you already know, or to make crazy predictions that seem clever, when in fact they’re just plain crazy.
Take last season, Week 13: Thanksgiving. Matt Flynn, Matt McGloin, Nate Burleson, and Jerricho Cotchery were trendy picks. ESPN predicted these guys would average 10.25 fantasy points that day, based primarily on these players’ recent success—a common mistake by “expert” sites, as they spend less time on hardcore research and more time cranking out meaningless “top 300” rankings.
I took to Facebook, Twitter, and my bedroom window, shouting from the rooftops: “Don’t pick up these guys! Don’t start these guys! Don’t be idiots!”
https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/406068262372249600
The result? These four trendy picks averaged 3.25 fantasy points that day. Those who religiously followed ESPN took a beating that week. That’s why laziness is never a recipe for success. You need—hell, we all need—fantasy experts we can trust. We need true differentiators, not blasé rankings that are wrong as often as they’re right.
I’m not saying that my predictions will always be correct. No one can make those claims. But history shows that when I make a call, it’s based on hard-nosed research and detailed analysis. Easy picks are boring and lead to middling performance. The hard picks are exciting and lead to fantasy titles.
So when someone picks Fitzgerald before Floyd in your draft, take a moment to smile. Then make damn sure you get Floyd before an opponent pounces.