Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions:
#10 . . .
Each preseason I give you 10 fantasy predictions that will give you a competitive edge over your opponents. These picks have nothing to do with what the "experts" are saying. I spend hundreds of hours each preseason researching player stats, news stories by local beat reporters, coaches' positional battle discussions, positional fantasy trends, and so on--and wrap them into tiny balls of hardcore advice. Because you deserve it. Because you'll do whatever it takes to win.
Last preseason, most "experts" ranked Rodgers, Brees, and Brady as the top 3 fantasy QBs. There was some laziness to these rankings, as I'm betting some folks looked at other folks' rankings and thought, "Yeah, that looks right" or "I don't want to look like an idiot," and then mirrored these elite player rankings on their own sites. Doubt this is happening? Then why has nearly everyone ranked Peterson, Charles, McCoy, and Forte as the top 4 RBs this year? Because many "experts" are afraid to trade in their reputation for good ol' fashioned accuracy; they'd rather be safe than have a higher probability of being right.
And who loses? The fantasy people like you and me who for years relied on such rankings. That's why my positional rankings last preseason were more accurate (41 correct) than ESPN's (40 correct)
So last preseason, my first bold prediction was that among Rodgers, Brees, and Brady, two of these QBs would finish outside the top 5 fantasy scoring QBs.
People thought I was crazy. But my research showed that it was highly probably. Those who listened to me passed on these frequent 1st and 2nd round picks, instead landing more reliable 1st and 2nd round talents like Matt Forte, A.J. Green, and Jimmy Graham. As a result, you locked up 1st/2nd value at draft positions where many others got 5th round value or worse. That's how you win.
This year, my #10 unconventional fantasy prediction is that Matt Ryan will be a top 3 QB. His ADP is currently in the 70s to 100s depending on league rules, where it should be in the 50s or better. Sure, Ryan is a trendy sleeper pick after a disappointing 2013 (26 TDs and a career-high 17 INTs). But “sleeper” doesn’t do him justice. WR Roddy White played only 14 games and was hampered with injuries throughout the year. Julio Jones lasted only five games before being sidelined for the season.
But the key stat is that Ryan still managed to finish fourth in the league in passing yards (4,515) and fourth in completion percentage (67.4%) despite enduring the third most sacks. While a mediocre QB would have collapsed under those conditions, Ryan achieved more with less than almost any other QB in his shoes could have.
With White and Jones healthy, a less-than-stellar RB corps, and a crappy-at-best defense, Ryan should throw early and often . . . and as successfully as we’ve come to know. Picture 5,000+ yards and 35+ scores, placing him comfortably among the top 3 fantasy QBs, and making you look like a genius compared to your buddies who rely on ESPN (which ranks Ryan at #11) and nearly ever other "expert" site.
#10 . . .
Each preseason I give you 10 fantasy predictions that will give you a competitive edge over your opponents. These picks have nothing to do with what the "experts" are saying. I spend hundreds of hours each preseason researching player stats, news stories by local beat reporters, coaches' positional battle discussions, positional fantasy trends, and so on--and wrap them into tiny balls of hardcore advice. Because you deserve it. Because you'll do whatever it takes to win.
Last preseason, most "experts" ranked Rodgers, Brees, and Brady as the top 3 fantasy QBs. There was some laziness to these rankings, as I'm betting some folks looked at other folks' rankings and thought, "Yeah, that looks right" or "I don't want to look like an idiot," and then mirrored these elite player rankings on their own sites. Doubt this is happening? Then why has nearly everyone ranked Peterson, Charles, McCoy, and Forte as the top 4 RBs this year? Because many "experts" are afraid to trade in their reputation for good ol' fashioned accuracy; they'd rather be safe than have a higher probability of being right.
And who loses? The fantasy people like you and me who for years relied on such rankings. That's why my positional rankings last preseason were more accurate (41 correct) than ESPN's (40 correct)
So last preseason, my first bold prediction was that among Rodgers, Brees, and Brady, two of these QBs would finish outside the top 5 fantasy scoring QBs.
People thought I was crazy. But my research showed that it was highly probably. Those who listened to me passed on these frequent 1st and 2nd round picks, instead landing more reliable 1st and 2nd round talents like Matt Forte, A.J. Green, and Jimmy Graham. As a result, you locked up 1st/2nd value at draft positions where many others got 5th round value or worse. That's how you win.
This year, my #10 unconventional fantasy prediction is that Matt Ryan will be a top 3 QB. His ADP is currently in the 70s to 100s depending on league rules, where it should be in the 50s or better. Sure, Ryan is a trendy sleeper pick after a disappointing 2013 (26 TDs and a career-high 17 INTs). But “sleeper” doesn’t do him justice. WR Roddy White played only 14 games and was hampered with injuries throughout the year. Julio Jones lasted only five games before being sidelined for the season.
But the key stat is that Ryan still managed to finish fourth in the league in passing yards (4,515) and fourth in completion percentage (67.4%) despite enduring the third most sacks. While a mediocre QB would have collapsed under those conditions, Ryan achieved more with less than almost any other QB in his shoes could have.
With White and Jones healthy, a less-than-stellar RB corps, and a crappy-at-best defense, Ryan should throw early and often . . . and as successfully as we’ve come to know. Picture 5,000+ yards and 35+ scores, placing him comfortably among the top 3 fantasy QBs, and making you look like a genius compared to your buddies who rely on ESPN (which ranks Ryan at #11) and nearly ever other "expert" site.