Bold Prediction Flashback: Chris Johnson

Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions FLASHBACK:
#3 . . .

I love making bold predictions, but I don't make them casually. Hundreds of hours of research go into this process. If you don't have the time to do all this, that's where I can help.

Last year I noticed that the "experts" were undervaluing Chris Johnson. ESPN ranked him as the 15th best RB; Yahoo, the 16th. I went out on a limb, calling him the 7th best RB, and then put my money where my mouth was and drafted him early:

My prediction included these projected stats: 1,800+ all-purpose yards and 10+ TDs.

Why did I put so much faith in Johnson, when so many others were giving up on him? My previous post tells most of the story. In the end, it's about identifying which observations are misperceptions, and then simply capitalizing on those misperceptions. Johnson didn't quite meet my targets, finishing with 1,422 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs. But he yielded 2nd round value when most of the "experts" warned that he wasn't worth more than an early 4th round pick.

That's the difference between playing it safe and losing . . . and playing it bold and winning.