Before rushing off to pick up the Patriots' newly acquired TE Tim Wright, a warning about the fantasy value of Wright and New England's entire receiving corps, with a little help from our 5th grade friend, "Math."
Math gets us out of a lot of fantasy jams. While not always an accurate reflection of future behavior, Math often presents warning signs often undetectable from "hunches" and "bandwagon thinking."
Math offers us six numbers that should be heeded:
(1) 401
This is Tom Brady's record for completed passes in a season, which he achieved in 2011 and 2012.
(2) 414
This is the total number of receptions last year by current, fantasy-relevant Patriot receivers. In other words, Tim Wright's Tampa Bay stats are included. Josh Boyce's (i.e. fantasy irrelevance) are not. Note that this total is over 3% higher than Brady's completed passes record.
32 -- Kenbrell Thompkins
37 -- Aaron Dobson
39 -- Rob Gronkowski
44 -- Shane Vereen
49 -- Brandon LaFell
54 -- Danny Amendola
54 -- Tim Wright
105 -- Julian Edelman
(3) 549
This is the total number of receptions last year by current, fantasy-relevant Patriot receivers, stretching stats based on 16-game seasons. For example, Danny Amendola caught 54 balls in 12 games in 2013; at that rate over 16 games, he would have had 72 catches.
Again, Tim Wright's Tampa Bay stats are included. Josh Boyce's (i.e. fantasy irrelevance) are not. Note that this total is almost 37% higher than Brady's completed passes record.
43 -- Kenbrell Thompkins
49 -- Aaron Dobson
89 -- Rob Gronkowski
88 -- Shane Vereen
49 -- Brandon LaFell
72 -- Danny Amendola
54 -- Tim Wright
105 -- Julian Edelman
(4) 5,235
This is Brady's record for passing yards, which he achieved in 2011, and which stands as the 3rd most passing yards in NFL history.
(5) 4,891
These are the total receiving yards last year by current, fantasy-relevant Patriot receivers. As always, Tim Wright's Tampa Bay stats are included, while Josh Boyce and other fantasy irrelevant Pats receivers' stats are not.
466 -- Kenbrell Thompkins
519 -- Aaron Dobson
592 -- Rob Gronkowski
427 -- Shane Vereen
627 -- Brandon LaFell
633 -- Danny Amendola
571 -- Tim Wright
1,056 -- Julian Edelman
(6) 6,618
These are the total receiving yards last year by current, fantasy-relevant Patriot receivers, stretching stats based on 16-game seasons. Tim Wright, Josh Boyce, . . . you know the drill.
Note that this total is nearly 21% higher than Brady's passing yards record.
621 -- Kenbrell Thompkins
692 -- Aaron Dobson
1,353 -- Rob Gronkowski
854 -- Shane Vereen
627 -- Brandon LaFell
844 -- Danny Amendola
571 -- Tim Wright
1,056 -- Julian Edelman
This is a lot to soak in, but its essence should be clear: Historically speaking, at least some of these eight receivers will not match their 2013 stretched (16 games) totals. It's inconceivable that Brady will produce enough offense to keep all eight of these guys fantasy relevant. In fact, I suspect that only four (Gronk, Vereen, Edelman, and Amendola) are draftable in standard 12-team, 14-round leagues.
The three most injury-prone talents--Gronk, Vereen, and Amendola--have the best chance to match their 2013 16-game projected numbers . . . IF they remain healthy enough to play every game. That's a big if, particularly for Gronk and Amendola.
Meanwhile, we should expect declines--some modest, some sharp--in the 16-game numbers of Thompkins, Dobson, LaFell, Wright, and yes, Edelman.
Math puts things in perspective. We know what's likely and what's unlikely to happen based on past performance and potential future performance. So before you drop a good fantasy player to pick up Tim Wright off waivers, or before you draft Julian Edelman a little too early, understand that statistical regression is not just possible, but expected.
Take a bow, Math. Now go haunt some Middle School classroom.
Math gets us out of a lot of fantasy jams. While not always an accurate reflection of future behavior, Math often presents warning signs often undetectable from "hunches" and "bandwagon thinking."
Math offers us six numbers that should be heeded:
(1) 401
This is Tom Brady's record for completed passes in a season, which he achieved in 2011 and 2012.
(2) 414
This is the total number of receptions last year by current, fantasy-relevant Patriot receivers. In other words, Tim Wright's Tampa Bay stats are included. Josh Boyce's (i.e. fantasy irrelevance) are not. Note that this total is over 3% higher than Brady's completed passes record.
32 -- Kenbrell Thompkins
37 -- Aaron Dobson
39 -- Rob Gronkowski
44 -- Shane Vereen
49 -- Brandon LaFell
54 -- Danny Amendola
54 -- Tim Wright
105 -- Julian Edelman
(3) 549
This is the total number of receptions last year by current, fantasy-relevant Patriot receivers, stretching stats based on 16-game seasons. For example, Danny Amendola caught 54 balls in 12 games in 2013; at that rate over 16 games, he would have had 72 catches.
Again, Tim Wright's Tampa Bay stats are included. Josh Boyce's (i.e. fantasy irrelevance) are not. Note that this total is almost 37% higher than Brady's completed passes record.
43 -- Kenbrell Thompkins
49 -- Aaron Dobson
89 -- Rob Gronkowski
88 -- Shane Vereen
49 -- Brandon LaFell
72 -- Danny Amendola
54 -- Tim Wright
105 -- Julian Edelman
(4) 5,235
This is Brady's record for passing yards, which he achieved in 2011, and which stands as the 3rd most passing yards in NFL history.
(5) 4,891
These are the total receiving yards last year by current, fantasy-relevant Patriot receivers. As always, Tim Wright's Tampa Bay stats are included, while Josh Boyce and other fantasy irrelevant Pats receivers' stats are not.
466 -- Kenbrell Thompkins
519 -- Aaron Dobson
592 -- Rob Gronkowski
427 -- Shane Vereen
627 -- Brandon LaFell
633 -- Danny Amendola
571 -- Tim Wright
1,056 -- Julian Edelman
(6) 6,618
These are the total receiving yards last year by current, fantasy-relevant Patriot receivers, stretching stats based on 16-game seasons. Tim Wright, Josh Boyce, . . . you know the drill.
Note that this total is nearly 21% higher than Brady's passing yards record.
621 -- Kenbrell Thompkins
692 -- Aaron Dobson
1,353 -- Rob Gronkowski
854 -- Shane Vereen
627 -- Brandon LaFell
844 -- Danny Amendola
571 -- Tim Wright
1,056 -- Julian Edelman
This is a lot to soak in, but its essence should be clear: Historically speaking, at least some of these eight receivers will not match their 2013 stretched (16 games) totals. It's inconceivable that Brady will produce enough offense to keep all eight of these guys fantasy relevant. In fact, I suspect that only four (Gronk, Vereen, Edelman, and Amendola) are draftable in standard 12-team, 14-round leagues.
The three most injury-prone talents--Gronk, Vereen, and Amendola--have the best chance to match their 2013 16-game projected numbers . . . IF they remain healthy enough to play every game. That's a big if, particularly for Gronk and Amendola.
Meanwhile, we should expect declines--some modest, some sharp--in the 16-game numbers of Thompkins, Dobson, LaFell, Wright, and yes, Edelman.
Math puts things in perspective. We know what's likely and what's unlikely to happen based on past performance and potential future performance. So before you drop a good fantasy player to pick up Tim Wright off waivers, or before you draft Julian Edelman a little too early, understand that statistical regression is not just possible, but expected.
Take a bow, Math. Now go haunt some Middle School classroom.