Catch Players on the Upswing and Discard Them on the Downswing

Over the past two days I've warned about Branden Oliver (5 fantasy points last night) and Montee Ball (losing value every day).

Catching players on the upswing and discarding them on the downswing is a key winning strategy.  Knowing when to give up on an underperformer and when to ride them out there the following week is something that even most "experts" frequently get wrong.

I get it wrong too, sometimes, like giving up on Tom Brady three weeks ago, or continuing to insist that Matt Ryan is an elite fantasy QB (time will tell, but I'll probably get that one wrong).

But getting it right could mean the difference between 5 fantasy points and 15 fantasy points in a lineup slot.  For example:

(1) For weeks I pushed people not to give up on Torrey Smith; he has four TDs in his last four games.

(2) For weeks I pushed folks not to give up on Keenan Allen (you know who you are); he's averaging 10 targets per game over his last 5, and scored 13 fantasy points last night.

(3) For weeks I pushed people to trust in Shane Vereen for the long term; despite a 5-game stretch when he averaged under 5 fantasy points per game, heading into this week he's widely considered unbenchable.

The FF4W approach to fantasy football is time-tested and baby-approved.  It's not always right (what site is?), but the recommendations are based on facts.  There are no hunches expressed in this blog--no "feeling" that a player is due for a rebound.  Expectations are based on probabilities steeped in historical data merged with ever-changing player dynamics and coaching strategy shifts.

At the end of the day, we all have to live with the decisions we make.  But as we approach the second half of the season, FF4W will continue to help steer you in the right direction.