Ben Tate Prediction

The case against RB Ben Tate:

When a mediocre RB comes out of nowhere to score 3 TDs in a game, he's suddenly the "next big thing"--a player you can ride to the fantasy title.

Except it's not that simple. For example, in Week 11, Bobby Rainey scored 3 TDs. Many people--too many people--thought he'd be anywhere between startable and a fantasy stud in Week 12 and beyond. So far, he's been a bust.

Heading into last week, Tate had 1 TD on 158 touches this year. That's not just ineffective; it's the opposite of what smart fantasy people should be adding to their roster. And for nearly every week this season, Tate was not starter material, much less elite material.

Funny what happens after a 3-TD performance. ESPN's experts rank him as the 14th best RB in Week 14:

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/13ranksWeek14RB/fantasy-football-week-14-running-back-rankings

Last week, when it would have mattered, ESPN's experts ranked Tate as the 47th best RB:

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/12ranksWeek13RB/fantasy-football-week-13-running-back-rankings

By some stroke of luck or magic, did this perennial Arian Foster backup suddenly become a #1/#2 RB? Or was he a fantasy hero of circumstance, dominating perhaps the worst run defense in the league?

The latter explanation is the most logical. Tate, like Rainey, and like many other mediocre fantasy talents, rose to the occasion when given a weak defensive opponent. And so sure, Tate might score again this week against only a slightly better Jacksonville D.

But if you're counting on Tate to help bring you this year's title, you've picked the wrong guy. His matchups in weeks 16 and 17 will be much tougher those in weeks 13 and 14. Yes, he will go back to posting average to below-average numbers.

So unless you'll settle for 6-7 fantasy points from Tate during your championship game, look elsewhere.