Should you start RB Bobby Rainey going forward? Most fantasy football "experts" are saying "hell yeah," or something to that effect. Why am I, once again, on the opposite side of conventional wisdom? And why am I right?
Before you make one of the biggest mistakes of your fantasy season, recognize the facts:
Yes, Rainey amassed 167 total yards and 3 TDs last week. He tied for the most fantasy points in all of fantasy football. Very impressive.
As we've seen all season (Eddie Royal, Philip Rivers, Willis McGahee, etc.), people lunge for big fantasy outputs . . . after these players' values have peaked. That's a losing strategy, period.
First, let's examine his past:
Now, to the future, taking a look at Rainey's remaining schedule for most fantasy football leagues (ending Week 16):
The next 2 weeks, Rainey should sit on the bench; he'll garner no more than 7 fantasy points each contest.
Weeks 14 and 16? He's a flex option, with the potential for 10-12 fantasy points in each game.
Week 15? He's a desperation play. 8 or fewer points likely.
Conclusion:
Rainey is not what most people think he is. Against an ideal opponent, he kicked butt. Against his remaining opponents, he'll be serviceable at best.
Before you make one of the biggest mistakes of your fantasy season, recognize the facts:
Yes, Rainey amassed 167 total yards and 3 TDs last week. He tied for the most fantasy points in all of fantasy football. Very impressive.
As we've seen all season (Eddie Royal, Philip Rivers, Willis McGahee, etc.), people lunge for big fantasy outputs . . . after these players' values have peaked. That's a losing strategy, period.
First, let's examine his past:
- Rainey graduated from college in 2011. More than 2 years later, he received his first NFL carry. In a league desperate for #1, timeshare, and backup RBs, Rainey essentially was ignored.
- In the last 14 months, Rainey has been released by 3 NFL teams. Even the Browns, who boast one of the worst rushing attacks in the league, waived Rainey 5 weeks ago.
- The team Rainey destroyed last week--the Atlanta Falcons--have one of the NFL's 5 worst run defenses. A few weeks ago, the Arizona Cardinals--owners of a bottom-third rushing attack--racked up 201 rushing yards against Atlanta. Underachieving RB Lamar Miller's best yards-per-carry average in 2013 came against Atlanta. The Falcons are not a true test of an RB's talent.
Now, to the future, taking a look at Rainey's remaining schedule for most fantasy football leagues (ending Week 16):
- Week 12 -- at Detroit Lions -- NFL's 5th best run D
- Week 13 -- at Carolina Panthers -- 3rd best run D
- Week 14 -- home against Buffalo Bills -- 22nd best run D
- Week 15 -- home against San Francisco 49ers -- 12th best run D
- Week 16 -- at St. Louis Rams -- 17th best run D
The next 2 weeks, Rainey should sit on the bench; he'll garner no more than 7 fantasy points each contest.
Weeks 14 and 16? He's a flex option, with the potential for 10-12 fantasy points in each game.
Week 15? He's a desperation play. 8 or fewer points likely.
Conclusion:
Rainey is not what most people think he is. Against an ideal opponent, he kicked butt. Against his remaining opponents, he'll be serviceable at best.