Follow up: Eddie Royal, James Starks, and Willis McGahee

Last Friday morning I warned people not to get swept away by Eddie Royal, James Starks, and Willis McGahee. While I was busy researching which undervalued players might become huge fantasy assets, fantasy owners clamored for the chance to get one of these 3 overrated players.

So what happened in Week 3?

Royal -- 2 catches, 34 yards, 0 TDs
Starks -- 13 rushes, 55 yards, 0 TDs
McGahee -- 8 rushes, 9 yards, 0 TDs

If you had been "lucky" enough to have snagged all 3 of these guys last week, in Week 3 they would have given you a whopping 8 fantasy . . . combined.

Pathetic.

Royal and Starks were owned in more than 90% of ESPN leagues by this weekend--up about 80% each since earlier this season. McGahee was not as popular, but the 32-year-old former retiree should have been owned by 0%.

Meanwhile, my research brought me to WR Stephen Hill, the Jets' best hope for a productive fantasy performer. The 22-year-old did very little his rookie season. Add the fact that he's playing with a rookie QB on a relatively bad offensive team, and there's little wonder why he was owned in less than 3% of ESPN leagues.

The difference between winners and losers is that winners anticipate future success; losers follow past success. With 17 targets through 2 games, Hill was an offensive focal point. He had amassed only 125 yards with 0 TDs and had lost a fumble. But he had the makings of a regular fantasy contributor.

As you can see in the photo below, I picked up Hill less than 2 hours before the first Sunday kickoff. And how did he do? 108 yards and a TD.

Hill's Week 3 fantasy output was double that of Royal's, Starks', and McGahee's . . . combined.

Stop jumping on bandwagons. Start researching probabilities of future success. There are several Stephen Hills out there every week. They're not hard to find if you look hard enough.