Top 10 Kick-ass Fantasy Football Draft Tips:
#5 . . .
I’m a contrarian whenever conventional wisdom is wrong. “Wrongness” is based not on hunches, but on comprehensive statistical analyses. In fact, there are thousands of predictors across the fantasy landscape. A kick-ass performer hunts down these predictors and uses them to his or her advantage.
I frequently read blogs and Tweets from people who claim that “there’s no way to predict a kicker’s value” at the start of a season. “It’s a guessing game.” “Pick your favorite guy and move on.” These are not the words of champions.
During my research for “Fantasy Football for Winners,” I discovered that between 2009 and 2011, kickers on the highest scoring teams usually scored significantly more fantasy points than kickers on the lowest scoring teams.
Among the five NFL teams with the fewest points scored in 2011, their Ks finished #21, #25, #28, #29, and #31 in fantasy scoring among their peers. Each of these Ks played in all 16 games, so they had every opportunity to contribute. Among the top four scoring NFL teams, their Ks finished #2, #5, #6, and #7 in fantasy points. (Note that two teams tied for the fifth most points scored; the Panthers’ K finished #26 in fantasy points, while the Chargers’ K finished #14 in fantasy points.)
In 2010, among the five lowest scoring teams, Ks finished #8, #19, #23, #26, and #28 in K fantasy points. Among the top five scoring teams, Ks finished #2, #3, #5, #6, and #14. (Note that the #6 scoring “K” actually was the combination of two Ks used by the same team [the Patriots], due to an injury midway through the season.)
And in 2009, among the five lowest scoring teams, Ks finished #12, #14, #18, #20, and #29 in K fantasy points. Among the top five scoring teams, Ks finished #1, #2, #3, #7, and #11. (Note that the #11 ranking was the merging of two Saints Ks, while the #18 ranking was the merging of three Buccaneers Ks.)
There are tangible, consistent scoring disparities among high-scoring and low-scoring teams' kickers.
So don't try to finesse the acquisition of a kicker. To get an edge of your opponents--to increase your probability of success--pick an accurate leg on a high-powered offensive team. Period.
#5 . . .
I’m a contrarian whenever conventional wisdom is wrong. “Wrongness” is based not on hunches, but on comprehensive statistical analyses. In fact, there are thousands of predictors across the fantasy landscape. A kick-ass performer hunts down these predictors and uses them to his or her advantage.
I frequently read blogs and Tweets from people who claim that “there’s no way to predict a kicker’s value” at the start of a season. “It’s a guessing game.” “Pick your favorite guy and move on.” These are not the words of champions.
During my research for “Fantasy Football for Winners,” I discovered that between 2009 and 2011, kickers on the highest scoring teams usually scored significantly more fantasy points than kickers on the lowest scoring teams.
Among the five NFL teams with the fewest points scored in 2011, their Ks finished #21, #25, #28, #29, and #31 in fantasy scoring among their peers. Each of these Ks played in all 16 games, so they had every opportunity to contribute. Among the top four scoring NFL teams, their Ks finished #2, #5, #6, and #7 in fantasy points. (Note that two teams tied for the fifth most points scored; the Panthers’ K finished #26 in fantasy points, while the Chargers’ K finished #14 in fantasy points.)
In 2010, among the five lowest scoring teams, Ks finished #8, #19, #23, #26, and #28 in K fantasy points. Among the top five scoring teams, Ks finished #2, #3, #5, #6, and #14. (Note that the #6 scoring “K” actually was the combination of two Ks used by the same team [the Patriots], due to an injury midway through the season.)
And in 2009, among the five lowest scoring teams, Ks finished #12, #14, #18, #20, and #29 in K fantasy points. Among the top five scoring teams, Ks finished #1, #2, #3, #7, and #11. (Note that the #11 ranking was the merging of two Saints Ks, while the #18 ranking was the merging of three Buccaneers Ks.)
There are tangible, consistent scoring disparities among high-scoring and low-scoring teams' kickers.
So don't try to finesse the acquisition of a kicker. To get an edge of your opponents--to increase your probability of success--pick an accurate leg on a high-powered offensive team. Period.