Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions:
#7 . . .
Frank Gore will be just barely a top 20 fantasy running back this year. His fantasy value is no better than a late 3rd round draft pick--not the 2nd rounder that many experts believe.
Yes, he's running behind arguably the best offensive line in the league. And he's coming off a season in which he compiled 1,448 all-purpose yards and 9 total TDs. So why is he overvalued?
First, the O-line: Gore benefitted from a similarly top-tier line last season. If the line was mediocre last year and #1 this year, then we might see an uptick in his stats. But we already know what he can do running behind this O-line, so we should not expect improvement.
Second, his age: Gore is 30, a time when most RBs in the history of the NFL get worse. This is not a knock on Gore, but rather a statement steeped in reality. This perennial top 10 RB faces an ever steeper uphill climb toward excellence.
Third, his backups: Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James have proven to be capable RBs. I'm not saying there will be a changing-of-the-guard. But I am saying that the 49ers have enough backfield options to spell Gore more regularly.
Fourth, his workload: Gore has played in all 16 games each of the past two seasons--the first time he has done so in his career. During this stretch, he carried the ball 540 times--the most over a 2-year period since he was 23 and 24 years old. Can he sustain this pace? I believe not.
Fifth, Colin Kaepernick: the Niners' young franchise QB's arrival in Week 10 adversely affected Gore's fantasy value. During the first half of last season--with QB Alex Smith at the helm--Gore averaged 5.5 YPC. And the last half with Kaepernick starting? Gore had only 4.0 YPC. Yikes. And keep in mind that Kaepernick cut into Gore's workload by averaging 6+ rushes per game, a number not likely to drop this season.
Assuming a respectable 240 carries this season, Gore will earn 15 carries per game. His ceiling is about 1,200 total yards and 5-7 total TDs. However, I predict he will amass no better than 1,000 total yards and 4-6 TDs, making him no better than a #2 RB or flex player in 2013.
#7 . . .
Frank Gore will be just barely a top 20 fantasy running back this year. His fantasy value is no better than a late 3rd round draft pick--not the 2nd rounder that many experts believe.
Yes, he's running behind arguably the best offensive line in the league. And he's coming off a season in which he compiled 1,448 all-purpose yards and 9 total TDs. So why is he overvalued?
First, the O-line: Gore benefitted from a similarly top-tier line last season. If the line was mediocre last year and #1 this year, then we might see an uptick in his stats. But we already know what he can do running behind this O-line, so we should not expect improvement.
Second, his age: Gore is 30, a time when most RBs in the history of the NFL get worse. This is not a knock on Gore, but rather a statement steeped in reality. This perennial top 10 RB faces an ever steeper uphill climb toward excellence.
Third, his backups: Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James have proven to be capable RBs. I'm not saying there will be a changing-of-the-guard. But I am saying that the 49ers have enough backfield options to spell Gore more regularly.
Fourth, his workload: Gore has played in all 16 games each of the past two seasons--the first time he has done so in his career. During this stretch, he carried the ball 540 times--the most over a 2-year period since he was 23 and 24 years old. Can he sustain this pace? I believe not.
Fifth, Colin Kaepernick: the Niners' young franchise QB's arrival in Week 10 adversely affected Gore's fantasy value. During the first half of last season--with QB Alex Smith at the helm--Gore averaged 5.5 YPC. And the last half with Kaepernick starting? Gore had only 4.0 YPC. Yikes. And keep in mind that Kaepernick cut into Gore's workload by averaging 6+ rushes per game, a number not likely to drop this season.
Assuming a respectable 240 carries this season, Gore will earn 15 carries per game. His ceiling is about 1,200 total yards and 5-7 total TDs. However, I predict he will amass no better than 1,000 total yards and 4-6 TDs, making him no better than a #2 RB or flex player in 2013.