Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions:
#3 . . .
Chris Johnson will be a top 7 fantasy scorer among RBs this season. Numerous predictions from notable websites place him outside the top 10--sometimes well outside the top 10. So why am I high on Johnson?
The offensive line. Many fantasy competitors evaluate RBs based on their o-line. That's tackling only half of the issue. The other half--the most critical element--entails analyzing the extent to which the o-line has improved or worsened since the previous year. If RB1 nets 4.3 YPC in 2012 behind a great o-line, and this year is playing behind a comparably great o-line, then this alone does not mean RB1 will improve.
Last year, the Titans' o-line was ranked 16th and 31st by Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders, respectively. This off-season, the team invested in better guards, propelling the o-line to a #10 ranking according to the oft-reliable @EvanSilva and @Rotoworld_FB. Chris Johnson will benefit from these significant upgrades.
This is a guy ESPN ranked 4th among RBs heading into last season (http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=NFLDK2K12ranksRB). This is a guy entering the season still only 27 years old, likely with 2-3 great years left. This is a guy who's missed only 1 game in 5 seasons. This is a guy with fewer carries over the past 2 years than during any 2-year period of his career.
Last year Johnson had 4.5 YPC, nearly 1,500 all-purpose yards, and only 6 TDs. Yet he gets no love because of a relatively unreliable Titans offense. This year will be different: 1,800+ all-purpose yards and 10+ TDs.
#3 . . .
Chris Johnson will be a top 7 fantasy scorer among RBs this season. Numerous predictions from notable websites place him outside the top 10--sometimes well outside the top 10. So why am I high on Johnson?
The offensive line. Many fantasy competitors evaluate RBs based on their o-line. That's tackling only half of the issue. The other half--the most critical element--entails analyzing the extent to which the o-line has improved or worsened since the previous year. If RB1 nets 4.3 YPC in 2012 behind a great o-line, and this year is playing behind a comparably great o-line, then this alone does not mean RB1 will improve.
Last year, the Titans' o-line was ranked 16th and 31st by Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders, respectively. This off-season, the team invested in better guards, propelling the o-line to a #10 ranking according to the oft-reliable @EvanSilva and @Rotoworld_FB. Chris Johnson will benefit from these significant upgrades.
This is a guy ESPN ranked 4th among RBs heading into last season (http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=NFLDK2K12ranksRB). This is a guy entering the season still only 27 years old, likely with 2-3 great years left. This is a guy who's missed only 1 game in 5 seasons. This is a guy with fewer carries over the past 2 years than during any 2-year period of his career.
Last year Johnson had 4.5 YPC, nearly 1,500 all-purpose yards, and only 6 TDs. Yet he gets no love because of a relatively unreliable Titans offense. This year will be different: 1,800+ all-purpose yards and 10+ TDs.