Top 10 Unconventional Fantasy Predictions:
#9 . . .
Adrian Peterson's production will drop at least 20% from last season's totals. You heard me right. Yards and TDs will drop at least 20%. Why challenge nearly every fantasy expert and non-expert out there? Because I say what I think based on what I've learned analyzing this stuff for decades.
Adrian Peterson is great. Last year, he was nearly unstoppable. Few players have had the season AP had last year, and few have done so against such steep odds.
But let's look at the stats: AP averaged 6 yards per carry last season. That rarely happens, even for an elite talent like Peterson. In fact, the perennial first round fantasy pick previously had averaged 4.8 yards per carry for his career. In addition, last year he accumulated a personal best in rushing yards and had the 2nd most number of carries. He also started all 16 games for the first time in his career.
I'm a fan of the law of averages. In baseball, a guy who gets on base 10 straight times has almost no chance of building on that streak with another 10 straight. Similarly, a 28-year-old running back has a slim-at-best chance of absolutely crushing his previous career numbers . . . two times in a row.
Expect a significant drop-off from AP. Yes, he's still a top-5 caliber RB. But no, he won't be in the top 3 by season's end.
#9 . . .
Adrian Peterson's production will drop at least 20% from last season's totals. You heard me right. Yards and TDs will drop at least 20%. Why challenge nearly every fantasy expert and non-expert out there? Because I say what I think based on what I've learned analyzing this stuff for decades.
Adrian Peterson is great. Last year, he was nearly unstoppable. Few players have had the season AP had last year, and few have done so against such steep odds.
But let's look at the stats: AP averaged 6 yards per carry last season. That rarely happens, even for an elite talent like Peterson. In fact, the perennial first round fantasy pick previously had averaged 4.8 yards per carry for his career. In addition, last year he accumulated a personal best in rushing yards and had the 2nd most number of carries. He also started all 16 games for the first time in his career.
I'm a fan of the law of averages. In baseball, a guy who gets on base 10 straight times has almost no chance of building on that streak with another 10 straight. Similarly, a 28-year-old running back has a slim-at-best chance of absolutely crushing his previous career numbers . . . two times in a row.
Expect a significant drop-off from AP. Yes, he's still a top-5 caliber RB. But no, he won't be in the top 3 by season's end.