ADP vs Scoring
Data Set: The top 200+ preseason players each year from 2012 to 2025, including age, games played, fantasy points, and fantasy scoring rank for QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, and DSTs.
Data Points: 18,000+
Sample Questions Answered: What percentage of 29-30 year-old RBs have outperformed their ADPs?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? When developing my rankings, drafting, and making in-season trades. I don't go a week without it.
350+ Touch RBs
Data Set: Every RB in NFL history who has earned 350+ touches in a season (including the playoffs), along with their age, carries, receptions, games played, fantasy points, games played the following season, and fantasy points the following season.
Data Points: 3,300+
Sample Question Answered: What is the average drop in fantasy production for RBs who earn 400+ carries?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? Each preseason, I use this data to establish risk levels for several early-round fantasy draft picks, empowering me to fade overvalued RBs and lean into undervalued RBs. My public (and highly unconventional) warnings about guys like Christian McCaffrey in 2024 and Saquon Barkley in 2025 stem directly from this spreadsheet.
600+ Snap RBs
Data Set: Every RB who has played 600+ offensive snaps in a season from 2012 to 2025, along with their age, snap count, fantasy points, and fantasy points the following season.
Data Points: 2,000+
Sample Question Answered: What is the average year-to-year shift in fantasy production for RBs with 700-799 offensive snaps versus 800-899 offensive snaps?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? Each preseason, I use this data to establish risk levels for a dozen or more RBs, leading to high-probability predictions about overvalued RBs and lean into undervalued RBs.
RB College Touches / Round Drafted
Data Set: Every under-25-year-old RB (nearly 1,000) who has entered the NFL since 1996, along with what round they were drafted (or their UDFA status), total college touches, touches in their final college season, touches in their highest-touch college season, NFL games played, and NFL fantasy production.
Data Points: 11,000+
Sample Question Answered: What are RBs' average career fantasy points based on round drafted?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? For example, I'm deciding between two comparable rookie RBs late in my draft. One racked up 705 touches in college; the other collected 920. More specifically, last summer I used this data to caution against overvalued seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Each year I lean on this spreadsheet heavily.
WR College Receptions / Round Drafted
Data Set: Every under-25-year-old WR (more than 1,000) who has entered the NFL since 2003, along with what round they were drafted (or their UDFA status), total college receptions, receptions in their final college season, receptions in their highest-reception college season, NFL games played, and NFL fantasy production.
Data Points: 8,000+
Sample Question Answered: What are WRs' average career fantasy points based on round drafted?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? For example, I'm deciding between two comparable rookie WRs late in my draft. One had 75 career college receptions; the other had 130. This is my newest spreadsheet, and it's already impacting how I'm valuing 2026 rookies.
Sunday-Thursday RB Touches/Production
Data Set: Fantasy production and touch totals for RBs who played on Sunday and then four days later on Thursday, including their age and Thursday home/road location, from 2012 to 2025.
Data Points: Nearly 5,000
Sample Question Answered: What are the risks of starting a 30+ year-old RB on four days' rest?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? Entering each weekend during the season, I use this spreadsheet to analyze the Sunday RBs who are also playing that next Thursday to determine whether they're overvalued or undervalued. Based on what they do on Sunday, I then use this data to calculate the degree to which they're overvalued or undervalued for Thursday's game.
QB vs Non-QB Offense
Data Set: Every team's QB and non-QB rushing and passing stats (yards and TDs) from 2015 to 2025.
Data Points: Nearly 4,000
Sample Question Answered: How risky is it to draft a bell cow RB on a team with a run-friendly QB?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? I refer to this data each summer to remind myself why longstanding conventional wisdom re: dual-threat QBs is wrong.
Rematch Production
Data Set: Every 2021, 2022, and 2023 QB, RB, and WR who played twice against at least one team during the regular season, including the following data: game 1 win-loss outcome, game 2 location, players' fantasy points in each game, players' fantasy points for the season, and total games played that season.
Data Points: 35,000+
Sample Question Answered: Among streamble/startable RBs who facing teams they beat earlier in the season, what is their average bump or drop in fantasy production?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? This data helps me determine whether I should, for example, start my streamable QB against a middling defense after he flopped against that same defense earlier that season.
Home vs Road Player Production
Data Set: Career stats for every QB, RB, and WR who played in 2010, resulting in a representative sample (405 total players) for analyzing home versus road fantasy scoring.
Data Points: 4,000+
Sample Question Answered: Do RBs average more fantasy points at home versus on the road, and if so, by how much?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? An opponent sends me two comparable 1:1 trade offers, where one would net me a player with several more home games remaining. Or I'm deciding whether to start WR A or WR B, where one is at home and the other's on the road.
Win vs Loss Player Production
Data Set: The career stats for every QB, RB, and WR who played in 2010, resulting in a representative sample (405 total players) for analyzing fantasy scoring in victory versus in defeat.
Data Points: 4,000+
Sample Question Answered: Do WRs average more fantasy points in victory versus in defeat, and if so, by how much?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? When I'm drafting and torn between a great QB on a terrible team versus a Super Bowl contender's strong #2 WR.
Big Performance Frequency
Data Set: Every instance of a QB, RB, WR, TE, K, or DST scoring 20+, 30+, and 40+ points in a game from 2002 to 2025.
Data Points: 1,000+
Sample Question Answered: Which position has the highest probability of producing one or more 30+ point performances per week?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? When I need to "go big or go home." A few years ago, I had a 2-4 record and needed to roll the dice on lower-floor, higher-ceiling players. I proposed risky trades based on my findings on this spreadsheet, and -- as my opponents know -- won the title because of it.
Short and Long Weeks
Data Set: Every team's per-game points scored, rushing yards, and passing yards since 2000, broken down by the amount of rest days between games.
Data Points: 6,000+
Sample Question Answered: Among two comparable QBs playing on Sunday, who's more likely to throw for more yards: the QB who played last Sunday, or the QB who played last Monday (on less rest)? (Side note: The answer isn't obvious.)
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? All season long -- for example, when assessing values of QBs and RBs coming off their bye week.
Defenses Impacting Offenses
Data Set: Rushing attempts, pass attempts, and QB/RB fantasy production for each season's five best and five worst defensive teams, from 2001 to 2025.
Data Points: 1,500+
Sample Question Answered: To what extent do the best defensive teams produce more or fewer RB fantasy points than the worst defensive teams?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? I'm considering drafting one of two comparable QBs. One plays for a team with an elite defense, and the other starts for a team with one of the league's worst defenses. (Side note: The answer isn't obvious.)
Home Team Advantage
Data Set: Every home team's points scored, offensive yards, and offensive TDs when playing at home versus on the road, spanning every season since 2003.
Data Points: 6,000+
Sample Question Answered: How many more offensive yards per game do home teams collect versus road teams?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? A useful companion piece to the home/road spreadsheet highlighted above, using a more comprehensive data set to give a more macro picture of the fantasy impact of home games.
Last Undefeated Team
Data Set: The last undefeated team (or "teams" if two or more tied) for each season since 2000, including number of wins before their first loss, number of wins after their first loss, and the result of their final game that season. (Notably, since 2000, the 2006 Colts are the only "last undefeated team" to win the Super Bowl.)
Data Points: Nearly 400
Sample Question Answered: What percentage of last undefeated teams since 2000 didn't win a playoff game?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? If I'm rostering any players on the last undefeated team, I use this spreadsheet to assess whether to sell high after their first defeat.
Shutout Losses
Data Set: Every regular season shutout from 2000 to 2025, including location, week #, and points yielded; the location and outcome of the losing team's next game; pre-shutout per-game points scored/yielded; post-shutout per-game points scored/yielded; and the shutout team's winning percentage that season.
Data Points: 2,000+
Sample Question Answered: If a team experiences a shutout loss after averaging 19 points in their previous eight games, are they likely to average more or less than 19 points the rest of the season?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? Any time there's a shutout loss, I calculate the rebound potential for fantasy player on that defeated team to determine whether there are buy-low or waiver-add opportunities.
Week 1 Scorers
Data Set: Week 1 fantasy scoring for the top 5 QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, Ks, and DST based on points and ADP, spanning 2015 to 2025, including Week 1 fantasy points, season-long fantasy points, and end-of-season fantasy rankings.
Data Points: 7,000+
Sample Question Answered: To what extent does Week 1 scoring for preseason top 5 QBs reflect how those QBs will perform the rest of the season?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? An "undraftable" TE scores 18 points in Week 1. This spreadsheet helps me identify whether to target him on waivers, and if so, how much should I invest to snag him.
Teams' Positional Performances
Data Set: The best QB, RB, WR, and TE fantasy ranking for each team since 1998.
Data Points: Nearly 5,000
Sample Question Answered: What is the probability of two RB teammates posting top-30 fantasy numbers?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? Entering last season, there were zero Green Bay WRs inside the top 40 ADP and zero New Orleans WRs inside the top 30 ADP. This spreadsheet presents why both determinations were likely to be wrong.
Kickers on High- and Low-Scoring Teams
Data Set: Kickers' average fantasy production when playing on high-scoring and low-scoring teams.
Data Points: 84
Sample Question Answered: If you draft a kicker in an elite offense, how many more points on average will he score versus a kicker on a team with a bottom-tier offense?
When Do I Use This Spreadsheet? When I played in a league with kickers, I used this spreadsheet to identify the best bargains to target with my final pick.