Answer: Yes.
Explanation: FF4W researched every NFL RB who has earned 350+ touches in a season to assess fantasy-point regressions the following season. The years 1977 (the final 14-game NFL season), 1981 (the year before the players' strike), and 1986 (the year before the players' strike that led to replacement players) were excluded, as one should not compare fantasy production among seasons when RBs could not play the same number of games. The results are overwhelming: RB declines are the norm in the campaign immediately following a 350+ touch season, and are even more pronounced after a 400+ touch season. Higher carry volume has a bigger impact than higher pass-catching volume, and advancing age is a huge determinant of post-350+ touch regression.
Why This Matters: Arguably the most significant research FF4W has conducted. RB1s coming off huge-volume seasons regularly are among the top selections in the following year's draft--yet they are usually significant regression risks. Avoiding these likely pitfalls saves managers from choosing an almost inevitable first-round bust.
