Defense Impacting Offense Volume and Production

Question: To what extent do strong or weak defensive teams produce high-volume, highly productive QBs and RBs?

Answer: Moderately.

Explanation: In all but one season since 2001, QBs on bottom-5 defensive teams collectively averaged more pass attempts than QBs on top-5 defensive teams, but only rarely has this translated into more fantasy points. Conversely, in every season since 2001, RBs on top-5 defensive teams collectively averaged more rush attempts than RBs on bottom-5 defensive teams, while in all but one season since 2004, RBs on top-5 defensive teams collectively averaged more fantasy points than RBs on bottom-5 defensive teams.

Why This Matters: Conventional wisdom suggests QBs on teams that give up a lot of points are more likely to throw (true). But their lower production compared to QBs playing with great defenses is surprising and actionable. When combined with RB results, managers can make roster management decisions based on evidence that great defensive teams are more likely to produce better fantasy QBs and better fantasy RBs than their bad-defensive-team counterparts.