Answer: Not even close.
Explanation: This research spanning all ADP/performance data since 2015 can be broken down into these core, actionable highlights:
- Preseason QB1s averaged 260 points, while preseason QB2s averaged nearly as much: 236 points.
- 42% of preseason QB1s (30 out of 72) finished as a QB2 or worse, while 47% of TE1s (34 out of 72) finished as TE2s or worse.
- 31% of preseason RB1s (22 out of 72) finished as an RB3 or worse, while 32% of WR1s (23 out of 72) finished as WR3s or worse.
- 58% of preseason K1s (44 out of 72) finished as a K2 or worse, while 42% of DST1s (30 out of 72) finished as DST2s or worse.
- Preseason non-RB1s/2s have elite seasons more frequently than preseason non-WR1s/2s.
- Preseason RB3 averaged 131 points with an average positional rank of 44th, while preseason RB4s are comparable, averaging 123 points with an average positional rank of 46th.
Why This Matters: Each position has advantages and disadvantages. Each carries varying degrees of risks and upside. Elite QBs--particularly in recent years--have be instrumental for title contenders. Elite RBs are fantasy gold, but they're also less reliable based on higher-than-normal injury and timeshare risks. Elite WRs are as dependable as any elite positional players, but their ceiling frequently is lower than that of QBs and RBs. Elite TEs are similarly relatively dependable, but everyone outside the top 2 or top 3 TEs are higher-than-normal risks. An elite kicker or an elite DST can produce like a low-end RB2. But they are less dependable than perhaps any other elite players. So there is no "best way" to draft. These charts show that value can be found among every position as late as the double-digit rounds. So rather than lunge for the preseason 8th-ranked QB, consider whether that QB has elite potential. If not, why jump on a higher-upside option elsewhere? Historically speaking, a 15th- or even 20th-ranked QB might be just as good or better.
