At the end of each season I always share how my predictions fared. As noted above, and as reinforced throughout every season, transparency is a big part of FF4W. We don't hide behind our mistakes; we own them, learn from them, and move on. Every Saturday I published a list of bargains and busts based on expert-consensus rankings. My goal was to present contrarian viewpoints on players wrongly being ignored by just about everyone, and on players wrongly being hyped by just about everyone. The final tally was 139 right and 145 wrong. So if you went completely against the grain with some of my weekly contrarian calls, you would have had a 49% chance of capitalizing on an unexpected bargain . . . or saving yourself from starting an overvalued bust.
I fared about the same on my preseason contrarian predictions, hitting 10 and missing 11 for a 48% clip. My biggest misses included warning against Christian McCaffrey (RB-11 ADP), Marlon Mack (RB-36 ADP), and Robert Woods (WR-33 ADP), all of whom were markedly better than most experts thought -- and much, much, much better than I anticipated. My biggest hits included James Conner (RB-67 ADP), LeSean McCoy (RB-16 ADP), and Austin Hooper (TE-26 ADP). McCoy was a disaster as expected, while all my hyperventilating about Conner and Hooper in July, August, and onward proved at least somewhat useful. My remaining four predictions -- Drew Brees, Javorius Allen, Jarvis Landry, and Jordy Nelson -- fell about halfway between what I predicted vs. their ADP.
I fared about the same on my preseason contrarian predictions, hitting 10 and missing 11 for a 48% clip. My biggest misses included warning against Christian McCaffrey (RB-11 ADP), Marlon Mack (RB-36 ADP), and Robert Woods (WR-33 ADP), all of whom were markedly better than most experts thought -- and much, much, much better than I anticipated. My biggest hits included James Conner (RB-67 ADP), LeSean McCoy (RB-16 ADP), and Austin Hooper (TE-26 ADP). McCoy was a disaster as expected, while all my hyperventilating about Conner and Hooper in July, August, and onward proved at least somewhat useful. My remaining four predictions -- Drew Brees, Javorius Allen, Jarvis Landry, and Jordy Nelson -- fell about halfway between what I predicted vs. their ADP.
