Before launching my Monday morning fantasy rundown, we have a winner in the 3rd Annual FF4W Survivor Pool. "The Neidhawks" beat out 140 tough (and let's face it, some not-so-tough if you forgot to pick one week) competitors to capture the glamorous triple prize: (1) a shout-out on Facebook, (2) a shout-out on Twitter, and (3) a 30-minute phone conversation next summer on fantasy strategy heading into the 2018 season.
What could be better? Most things, I'm sure. But I'm sure "The Neidhawks" doesn't care. Right now s/he's basking in the glow of being better than everyone.
Of course, to claim these mind-numbing prizes, "The Neidhawks" must identify her-/himself. Comment below, or send me a message.
---
As most of you know, Monday mornings at FF4W are a chance to make sense of some of each Sunday's biggest fantasy impacts. So let's look at each Sunday team's most notable fantasy storyline:
Buccaneers -- Doug Martin was one of my popular "sits" this past week, and he didn't disappoint (i.e. he disappointed as expected). But the bigger story is O.J. Howard's breakout performance. He had five receptions in his first five games, and then more than doubled his career total in one afternoon. The issue with Howard was my issue this preseason: a good-not-great QB can't keep the rookie, Mike Evans, DJax, and Cameron Brate well fed. Howard will be a boom-bust streamer for the foreseeable future.
Bills -- Jordan Matthews' return was irrelevant. That's where things stand in Buffalo--a game where Bear castoff Deonte Thompson leads the team in receiving yards. It remains a chaotic fantasy situation.
Panthers -- Is Cam Newton droppable? A fair question for a has-been / could-be-again top-flight fantasy QB who's been awful in back-to-back contests. My answer is "Don't," unless you're in a 10-team league and have no bench space. His fantasy playoff schedule is favorable (he's one of the few QBs with three home games in weeks 14-16), and he can be excused for faltering against a Bears team that has made several solid QBs look bad. Cam's one of my favorite "get-him-for-cheap" buy-low QBs.
Bears -- Mitch Trubisky completed four passes, and apparently that was enough for the surprising 3-4 Bears. This defense is for real (some of you have known this much longer than I have). The big takeaway is that Jordan Howard will continue to be run into the ground, and no receiver is worth starting in any league.
Ravens -- A year ago this would have been a compelling game. But this year's Baltimore squad never had a chance against the Vikings. The most interesting thing is that Alex Collins led the team in carries, while Buck Allen continues to benefit from Joe Flacco's dump-offs. In the right match-ups, they'll be fine. But Week 14/15 contests in Pittsburgh and in Cleveland make them sell-high guys.
Vikings -- My fantasy devotion to Jerick McKinnon has given way to the blunt reminder that Latavius Murray isn't going anywhere. I face-planted on this prediction. We could now be looking at a hot-hand backfield.
Titans -- Entering Week 6, the Browns had yielded more passing TDs (14) than any team except the Patriots (also 14), while opposing QBs enjoyed a 72% completion rate (second-worst in the NFL). Yet Marcus Mariota couldn't get anything going. This is another reminder why I couldn't understand prognosticators' preseason props for Tennessee's franchise QB. Mariota has a 6/4 TD/turnover split thru six games. He's Alex Smith circa 2016. Of course, he's better than this. But the run-focused offense and (perhaps) Corey Davis's long absence is cutting significantly into his upside.
Browns -- The 0-7 Browns have lost four games by three points apiece. Just imagine if they hadn't stupidly invested in high-flying receivers in recent years and instead acquired a quarterback who could do something with the ball (there have been plenty to choose from, and they've chosen terribly). This remains a "move along, nothing to see here" collection of fantasy mediocrity. Except, as I always say, Duke Johnson, who could be an RB2 if he only got enough looks.
Saints -- Willie Snead's late scratch paved the way for Ted Ginn, Jr. to shine. If at all possible, package Ginn while you can. Someone in your league wants him. He enjoyed season-highs in targets, receptions, and yards (7/7/141). That's not easily replicable on a team with so many weapons. I think you can pitch him as a WR2/3.
Packers -- Aaron Jones's incredible game was beyond all my expectations, so apologies for believing he was a sell-high RB. On the flip side, my concern last week about Brett Hundley was met with a mix of agreement and sentiments akin to "he's been in this system for over a year; of course he's ready to take over." The fact is, backup QBs are not often capable of meeting--let alone exceeding--expectations, and Hundley has major deficiencies. Green Bay is now a week behind in its search for a decent replacement to Aaron Rodgers. It's not too late, and for those carrying Packer receivers, it better not be too late.
Jaguars -- Painfully, I almost added T.J. Yeldon in my league 30 minutes before kickoff, and then decided that with Leonard Fournette likely returning next week, it didn't make sense. Yeldon completely outplayed Chris Ivory and deserves to get the start if Fournette remains sidelined.
Colts -- Jacksonville sacked Jacoby Brissett 10 times. That's all we need to know. I was adamant all week about sitting Frank Gore (and have been urging folks to sell high since Week 1). But kudos to those who went bolder and sat T.Y. Hilton. Back to Gore, though: Marlon Mack looked terrific on the ground and more than doubled Gore's yardage total. It's only a matter of time, folks. Mack is the Colt RB to have for the stretch run.
Cardinals -- Carson Palmer was knocked out in the midst of a bad game. As with seemingly every season, Arizona refuses to prepare for the likelihood that Palmer will miss time. Drew Stanton remains a not-ready-for-prime-time QB. With Palmer's season in jeopardy, Arizona's wideouts' values have plummeted. And in other news, I warned against Adrian Peterson all week. It's just one game, so I won't get ahead of myself. But AP's age and mileage always meant he'd face an uphill battle for consistent fantasy relevance.
Rams -- If you streamed Jared Goff, you might have listened to my weekend podcast (https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013). No one I know of believed Goff was worth starting. But he came through with QB1 production.
Jets -- Josh McCown now has eight TDs in his past three contests. I never saw this coming, and congrats to those who did. He is defying logic.
Dolphins -- Few pages have been as forceful in its "avoid Jay Cutler" mantra these past 3+ months as FF4W. Since the early days of summer, I've expressed hope that Adam Gase would see the light and switch to Matt Moore. Well, it took a Cutler injury to show that Moore can run this offense as well (and I believe better) as Cutler. With Jay out 2-3 weeks, it's now Moore's job to lose. Oh, and if you listened to the FF4W podcast, you knew Kenny Stills (six catches for 85 yards and two TDs) was one of the week's biggest WR bargains.
Cowboys -- It was the Ezekiel Elliott show--finally a sophomore-year performance reminiscent of his breakout rookie campaign. Of course, it came against the Niners. And of course, he might be suspended for some or most of the fantasy playoffs. So for the 15th time, if you can get near-elite RB value for him, take it. Yes, he could help you win the title. But the odds are good that his suspension will stand, meaning his absence could help you lose the title.
49ers -- My George Kittle prediction fell flat. Big time. And the most notable news was Carlos Hyde dominating backfield touches. Of course, you all know my views on Hyde's unusually high injury risks. Thus far I've been extremely wrong about his prospects. So I'm batting .000 when it comes to Niner predictions.
Seahawks -- Russell Wilson had his first 3+ TD game in four weeks. He's earned his way to top 6 fantasy QB production thru seven weeks. Pretty remarkable for a guy so many fantasy managers gave up on in September.
Giants -- Orleans Darkwa regressed as expected, and Evan Engram continued to be Eli Manning's favorite target (as expected). Nothing is static in this offense, though. Paul Perkins or Wayne Gallman could get more opportunities to assert themselves. Sterling Shepard's eventual return will impact Engram, and perhaps a midseason signing (though decreasingly likely) will shake things up further. But at least for another week, Engram is an elite tight end.
Bengals -- I didn't give Cincy any chance to win this one. Most interestingly, Joe Mixon ran very well on a day when Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard ran terribly. The fantasy numbers weren't impressive, but Mixon separated himself further from the pack.
Steelers -- Le'Veon Bell has had 38 touches in back-to-back games. That's insane. That's 608-touch-pace insane. His actual pace thru six games is 437, which is only moderately insane.
Broncos -- The Chargers owned Denver yesterday. Neither Trevor Siemian nor C.J. Anderson nor anyone else could get anything going. It was the Broncos' first shutout loss in 25 years, and is further evidence that this is not a playoff-caliber team. Oh, and Siemian probably won't be starting next year.
Chargers -- Hunter Henry is on a roll. All of it earned. All of it a precursor to a TE1 career.
Falcons -- Final-second escapes against the Bears and Lions have this team at 3-3 instead of 1-5. Most notably last night from a fantasy perspective, Devonta Freeman out-touched Tevin Coleman 15-6. Coleman had been dominating on the ground (5.6 YPC) and, I believed, was close to earning more of an equal timeshare with Freeman (they were separated by just one touch in Week 6). But last night's distribution and numbers are putting a stop to that thinking--at least for now.
Patriots -- Tom Brady threw the ball a season-low 29 times and now has only seven TDs in his past four games. While New England isn't running the ball particularly well on the ground (4.1 YPC), it's better than last year (3.9) and the year before that (3.7), and the year before that (3.9). Brady took a relative beating with 16 sacks thru five games. He's been brought down only twice in two games since. An active running game and a reduction in Brady's gaudy fantasy numbers could be connected. Perhaps this is how the 40-year-old Brady will operate during the regular season. I'll give it another two weeks before calling this mini-trend a game-plan shift.
What could be better? Most things, I'm sure. But I'm sure "The Neidhawks" doesn't care. Right now s/he's basking in the glow of being better than everyone.
Of course, to claim these mind-numbing prizes, "The Neidhawks" must identify her-/himself. Comment below, or send me a message.
---
As most of you know, Monday mornings at FF4W are a chance to make sense of some of each Sunday's biggest fantasy impacts. So let's look at each Sunday team's most notable fantasy storyline:
Buccaneers -- Doug Martin was one of my popular "sits" this past week, and he didn't disappoint (i.e. he disappointed as expected). But the bigger story is O.J. Howard's breakout performance. He had five receptions in his first five games, and then more than doubled his career total in one afternoon. The issue with Howard was my issue this preseason: a good-not-great QB can't keep the rookie, Mike Evans, DJax, and Cameron Brate well fed. Howard will be a boom-bust streamer for the foreseeable future.
Bills -- Jordan Matthews' return was irrelevant. That's where things stand in Buffalo--a game where Bear castoff Deonte Thompson leads the team in receiving yards. It remains a chaotic fantasy situation.
Panthers -- Is Cam Newton droppable? A fair question for a has-been / could-be-again top-flight fantasy QB who's been awful in back-to-back contests. My answer is "Don't," unless you're in a 10-team league and have no bench space. His fantasy playoff schedule is favorable (he's one of the few QBs with three home games in weeks 14-16), and he can be excused for faltering against a Bears team that has made several solid QBs look bad. Cam's one of my favorite "get-him-for-cheap" buy-low QBs.
Bears -- Mitch Trubisky completed four passes, and apparently that was enough for the surprising 3-4 Bears. This defense is for real (some of you have known this much longer than I have). The big takeaway is that Jordan Howard will continue to be run into the ground, and no receiver is worth starting in any league.
Ravens -- A year ago this would have been a compelling game. But this year's Baltimore squad never had a chance against the Vikings. The most interesting thing is that Alex Collins led the team in carries, while Buck Allen continues to benefit from Joe Flacco's dump-offs. In the right match-ups, they'll be fine. But Week 14/15 contests in Pittsburgh and in Cleveland make them sell-high guys.
Vikings -- My fantasy devotion to Jerick McKinnon has given way to the blunt reminder that Latavius Murray isn't going anywhere. I face-planted on this prediction. We could now be looking at a hot-hand backfield.
Titans -- Entering Week 6, the Browns had yielded more passing TDs (14) than any team except the Patriots (also 14), while opposing QBs enjoyed a 72% completion rate (second-worst in the NFL). Yet Marcus Mariota couldn't get anything going. This is another reminder why I couldn't understand prognosticators' preseason props for Tennessee's franchise QB. Mariota has a 6/4 TD/turnover split thru six games. He's Alex Smith circa 2016. Of course, he's better than this. But the run-focused offense and (perhaps) Corey Davis's long absence is cutting significantly into his upside.
Browns -- The 0-7 Browns have lost four games by three points apiece. Just imagine if they hadn't stupidly invested in high-flying receivers in recent years and instead acquired a quarterback who could do something with the ball (there have been plenty to choose from, and they've chosen terribly). This remains a "move along, nothing to see here" collection of fantasy mediocrity. Except, as I always say, Duke Johnson, who could be an RB2 if he only got enough looks.
Saints -- Willie Snead's late scratch paved the way for Ted Ginn, Jr. to shine. If at all possible, package Ginn while you can. Someone in your league wants him. He enjoyed season-highs in targets, receptions, and yards (7/7/141). That's not easily replicable on a team with so many weapons. I think you can pitch him as a WR2/3.
Packers -- Aaron Jones's incredible game was beyond all my expectations, so apologies for believing he was a sell-high RB. On the flip side, my concern last week about Brett Hundley was met with a mix of agreement and sentiments akin to "he's been in this system for over a year; of course he's ready to take over." The fact is, backup QBs are not often capable of meeting--let alone exceeding--expectations, and Hundley has major deficiencies. Green Bay is now a week behind in its search for a decent replacement to Aaron Rodgers. It's not too late, and for those carrying Packer receivers, it better not be too late.
Jaguars -- Painfully, I almost added T.J. Yeldon in my league 30 minutes before kickoff, and then decided that with Leonard Fournette likely returning next week, it didn't make sense. Yeldon completely outplayed Chris Ivory and deserves to get the start if Fournette remains sidelined.
Colts -- Jacksonville sacked Jacoby Brissett 10 times. That's all we need to know. I was adamant all week about sitting Frank Gore (and have been urging folks to sell high since Week 1). But kudos to those who went bolder and sat T.Y. Hilton. Back to Gore, though: Marlon Mack looked terrific on the ground and more than doubled Gore's yardage total. It's only a matter of time, folks. Mack is the Colt RB to have for the stretch run.
Cardinals -- Carson Palmer was knocked out in the midst of a bad game. As with seemingly every season, Arizona refuses to prepare for the likelihood that Palmer will miss time. Drew Stanton remains a not-ready-for-prime-time QB. With Palmer's season in jeopardy, Arizona's wideouts' values have plummeted. And in other news, I warned against Adrian Peterson all week. It's just one game, so I won't get ahead of myself. But AP's age and mileage always meant he'd face an uphill battle for consistent fantasy relevance.
Rams -- If you streamed Jared Goff, you might have listened to my weekend podcast (https://soundcloud.com/user-780565013). No one I know of believed Goff was worth starting. But he came through with QB1 production.
Jets -- Josh McCown now has eight TDs in his past three contests. I never saw this coming, and congrats to those who did. He is defying logic.
Dolphins -- Few pages have been as forceful in its "avoid Jay Cutler" mantra these past 3+ months as FF4W. Since the early days of summer, I've expressed hope that Adam Gase would see the light and switch to Matt Moore. Well, it took a Cutler injury to show that Moore can run this offense as well (and I believe better) as Cutler. With Jay out 2-3 weeks, it's now Moore's job to lose. Oh, and if you listened to the FF4W podcast, you knew Kenny Stills (six catches for 85 yards and two TDs) was one of the week's biggest WR bargains.
Cowboys -- It was the Ezekiel Elliott show--finally a sophomore-year performance reminiscent of his breakout rookie campaign. Of course, it came against the Niners. And of course, he might be suspended for some or most of the fantasy playoffs. So for the 15th time, if you can get near-elite RB value for him, take it. Yes, he could help you win the title. But the odds are good that his suspension will stand, meaning his absence could help you lose the title.
49ers -- My George Kittle prediction fell flat. Big time. And the most notable news was Carlos Hyde dominating backfield touches. Of course, you all know my views on Hyde's unusually high injury risks. Thus far I've been extremely wrong about his prospects. So I'm batting .000 when it comes to Niner predictions.
Seahawks -- Russell Wilson had his first 3+ TD game in four weeks. He's earned his way to top 6 fantasy QB production thru seven weeks. Pretty remarkable for a guy so many fantasy managers gave up on in September.
Giants -- Orleans Darkwa regressed as expected, and Evan Engram continued to be Eli Manning's favorite target (as expected). Nothing is static in this offense, though. Paul Perkins or Wayne Gallman could get more opportunities to assert themselves. Sterling Shepard's eventual return will impact Engram, and perhaps a midseason signing (though decreasingly likely) will shake things up further. But at least for another week, Engram is an elite tight end.
Bengals -- I didn't give Cincy any chance to win this one. Most interestingly, Joe Mixon ran very well on a day when Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard ran terribly. The fantasy numbers weren't impressive, but Mixon separated himself further from the pack.
Steelers -- Le'Veon Bell has had 38 touches in back-to-back games. That's insane. That's 608-touch-pace insane. His actual pace thru six games is 437, which is only moderately insane.
Broncos -- The Chargers owned Denver yesterday. Neither Trevor Siemian nor C.J. Anderson nor anyone else could get anything going. It was the Broncos' first shutout loss in 25 years, and is further evidence that this is not a playoff-caliber team. Oh, and Siemian probably won't be starting next year.
Chargers -- Hunter Henry is on a roll. All of it earned. All of it a precursor to a TE1 career.
Falcons -- Final-second escapes against the Bears and Lions have this team at 3-3 instead of 1-5. Most notably last night from a fantasy perspective, Devonta Freeman out-touched Tevin Coleman 15-6. Coleman had been dominating on the ground (5.6 YPC) and, I believed, was close to earning more of an equal timeshare with Freeman (they were separated by just one touch in Week 6). But last night's distribution and numbers are putting a stop to that thinking--at least for now.
Patriots -- Tom Brady threw the ball a season-low 29 times and now has only seven TDs in his past four games. While New England isn't running the ball particularly well on the ground (4.1 YPC), it's better than last year (3.9) and the year before that (3.7), and the year before that (3.9). Brady took a relative beating with 16 sacks thru five games. He's been brought down only twice in two games since. An active running game and a reduction in Brady's gaudy fantasy numbers could be connected. Perhaps this is how the 40-year-old Brady will operate during the regular season. I'll give it another two weeks before calling this mini-trend a game-plan shift.