Contrarian Prediction #1: Blake Bortles (QB-22 ADP) Will Be a Top 14 QB

With the annual "32 Teams in 32 Days" segment in the rear-view mirror, the annual "Contrarian Predictions" (formerly called "Bold Predictions") feature begins. For new FF4W readers, this is when I predict player outcomes, several of you tell me I'm a moron, many more of you start typing "You're a moron" before deleting it because it's redundant, and some of you unfollow the page in disgust. Then we all make up at season's end.

To be clear, these are not "crazy predictions." You won't find me betting on Aaron Rodgers getting hurt in Week 4 and finishing outside the top 30, or banking on Niners backup RB Joe Williams cracking the top 10. This is about finding value on draft day and then on waivers throughout the season. My predictions are contrarian in that most or all of the fantasy universe believes one thing, and I believe another. For example, last summer 84 of 90 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros ranked Eli Manning as a top 12 QB, with many notable people (from NFL.com, Yahoo! Sports, and Sports Illustrated) placing him in the top 6. I claimed he'd be outside the top 15. My prediction was contrarian because it was outside normal thought.

I also get many of these predictions wrong. My goal is 65%+. That means if we take a chance on three bargains I'm pushing--or if we avoid three overrated players I'm avoiding--we'll score big on two out of three, which can mean the difference between missing or making the playoffs.

Note that if I guy I'm pushing gets hurt in Week 1, that counts as "wrong." Injuries are part of the game, and my wrong predictions aren't nullified on account of bad luck.

My first call this season is one of the most obvious to me: Blake Bortles. Owning a ridiculous QB-22 ADP, the fourth-year starter will be a top 14 QB this season, meaning rather than being undraftable, he should be selected in just about every 12+ team league. Only nine of 88 Fantasy Pros-compiled experts rank him inside the top 14 (with a high of 11), while more than 50% of experts place Bortles in the 20s.

A few weeks ago, I shared some of my research on Bortles--that in 2015, on a per-attempt basis, his passes traveled 4.37 yards before being caught. That was the 10th highest average among all 32 teams' primary starting QBs. Last year that average dropped to 3.21--good for 30th best among primary starting QBs, ahead of only rookies Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Playing through two shoulder separations and wrist tendinitis last year, Bortles simply is not one of the NFL's worst QBs, and I believe his focus on correcting mechanical issues while getting healthy this offseason will pay off.

Then there's the management shakeup, where Doug Marrone was brought in as the interim coach last December with two games remaining. The Jags proceeded to post back-to-back 400-yard games (vs. only one 400-yard performance in the previous 14 games). Marrone fared well as the Saints' offensive coordinator from 2006 to 2008, when New Orleans had more yardage than any other team in two of three seasons. Although Drew Brees had a ton to do with that, even the Bills went through a respectable offensive turnaround in Marrone's two seasons at the helm a few years ago. As head coach for the foreseeable future, Marrone should continue to have a positive impact on Bortles and the rest of the team.

Also consider that Allen Robinson is not as bad as what we saw in 2016, Marqise Lee is ascending, and Allen Hurns played hurt for much of the year. Add in a somewhat improved running game and offensive line, and there's very little room to go anywhere but up.

Bortles will be a late-round steal returning at least mid-round value.