Thoughts on Le'Veon Bell and Josh Gordon

It's still only July, but in the past few days there was significant news on two notable fantasy players: Le'Veon Bell and Josh Gordon.  What does it mean?  Here's my take.  Looking forward to hearing yours:

Le'Veon Bell allegedly missed several drug tests and is expected to receive a four-game suspension to start the season.  He has vowed to appeal and win.  Bell is one of the NFL's most talented running backs.  But this would mark his second drug-related suspension in barely three NFL seasons.  A free agent next offseason, he's already likely lost millions of dollars in future contract money, in addition to money he's already forfeited--and likely will forfeit--for past and impending infractions.  He's on the verge of tilting closer toward "damaged goods": a player whose off-field issues might prevent him from realizing his potential.

While it's way, way too soon to write off Bell, this news has led me to tentatively drop him from my #1 ranked RB this preseason (and #2 overall) to my #20 RB / #59 overall.  Some or many of you might consider that lunacy.  On the field, Bell is nearly unrivaled in a Pittsburgh offense that will average 30+ points per game.  But I believe there's more to this.

Backup DeAngelo Williams averaged less than three touches a game last year when Bell started.  Yet he was an elite RB when Bell was sidelined.  If Le'Veon is suspended, then when he returns in Week 5, I believe Williams will earn a larger complementary role than he did last year (maybe a 10-20 split).  The Steelers shouldn't miss a beat with this arrangement, and in the process would accomplish three things: (1) keeping Bell fresh for the playoffs, (2) keeping Bell motivated to stay clean and prove that he's the best / most reliable RB in that backfield, and (3) making it harder for Bell to command a huge payday in the open market this offseason, thereby making it easier for Pittsburgh to re-sign him.  Losing every-down-back status means something. After all, if Bell is touching the ball only 20 times per game vs. 25-28, his resulting production should take a small hit.

So if Bell is suspended, against conventional wisdom, I'll pass on him at what is sure to be an overrated suspension-adjusted ADP.

Elsewhere in the AFC North, the Browns recently received news that should transform their offense: Josh Gordon is expected to be reinstated starting Week 5.  An uphill climb remains, such as proving he can quickly return to game shape after nearly two years away from the sport.  And he needs to be a model citizen from now and eternity.  The former is entirely doable for a guy like Gordon.  The latter is a different story.  Hanging out with Johnny Manziel this offseason didn’t help.  All eyes will be on the 25-year-old.  Whether deserved or not, one more slip-up might mean the end of his NFL career.

I’ve tagged Gordon as my 34th ranked WR on draft day.  On a per-game basis, he certainly could post top 20 numbers, and some surely believe he’ll return to elite status.  But I’m taking a fairly conservative stance.  First off, I don’t trust Robert Griffin III (who’s the likely starter) to get him the ball consistently enough.  If you trust RGIII, trust your instincts.  But I don’t see it.  Second, when Gordon blew up for 1,646 yards and nine TDs in 14 games three seasons ago, Greg Little was the second-best wideout (465 yards and two TDs).  Rookie Corey Coleman, who’s expected to start opposite Gordon when the latter returns, is far more talented than Little and will vie for serious targets out of the gate.  Third, Cleveland’s running game is far better than the piecemeal efforts of 2013’s Willis McGahee (2.7 YPC) & company.

Personally, I’m thrilled that Gordon is expected to get another chance.  Fantasy-wise, I probably won’t draft him though, because someone else sees elite talent where I see WR2 numbers most weeks.  Meanwhile, Coleman and Gary Barnidge drop a few spots each, as RGIII’s upside isn’t substantial enough to support three every-week starting fantasy receivers.